MLB trade deadline: With a shortage of arms and more buyers than sellers, starting pitching will be very expensive this summer

It’s no secret that the most precious commodity at this year‘s trade deadline will be starting pitching. When it comes to midseason additions, as is the case in the offseason, reliable starters are extremely valuable. But there are a few factors that could make acquiring starting pitching ahead of the July 31 MLB trade deadline a little more challenging than in other years.

The most important caveat for this year’s deadline is that there is no true ace considered to be available. Unlike last season, when the White Sox were actively shopping Garrett Crochet, this time around, there is no frontline, All-Star-level arm on the market. Across the league, that caliber of pitcher is either not available or not healthy. Some might argue that Rangers right-hander Jacob deGrom meets this criteria, but he comes with a price that would turn many teams off.

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This season, there are more middle-to-back of the rotation arms available. Pitchers such as Pirates left-hander Andrew Heaney, Orioles righty Zach Eflin, D-backs right-hander Merrill Kelly and Rangers righty Tyler Mahle are the type of arms expected to be available and highly sought after. If moved, those four would all be rentals before they become free agents at the conclusion of the 2025 season.

Several other notable pitchers who are set to become free agents and therefore could be candidates to be traded, such as Astros left-hander Framber Valdez, Phillies southpaw Ranger Suárez and Padres right-hander Michael King, are on contending teams and are important pieces of their teams’ playoff hopes. That trend across the league further shrinks this summer’s pitching market.

And of the starters who are expected to be available this summer, many come with questions or risks. There aren’t many arms you can point to that have been particularly dominant, and there are even fewer that a contender would want starting a playoff game.

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Even Sandy Alcántara and Zac Gallen, who were supposed to be among the biggest names available at this year’s deadline, have not delivered Cy Young-caliber performances in the first half. While it’s entirely possible either of them could return to All-Star form with a new club and give that team an ace for the stretch run, it seems just as likely that they continue to struggle through the second half.

Competition for starting pitching inevitably drives up the price for the best players available at the deadline. That will be particularly true this season, when most of the contenders could use pitching. Recent June swoons for the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets have emphasized their pitching needs. The Los Angeles Dodgers, despite many moves in the offseason, have once again seen their rotation decimated by injuries, and the San Diego Padres could also use additional pitching depth.

What’s more, the competition for pitching isn’t exclusive to the teams at the top of the standings. There are currently nine teams within four games of a playoff spot, in addition to the six teams holding wild cards. Add the six division leaders, and that’s two-thirds of the teams in baseball with reason to believe in their chances to reach the postseason.

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If most teams consider themselves buyers, that puts the sellers in an extremely advantageous position and raises the prices even higher, particularly when it comes to starting pitching. But in the era of the third wild card, some will wait longer than ever to decide which lane to take. Some, like the Detroit Tigers last season, might even try to thread the needle and think short- and long-term by selling and buying at the same time.

As we get closer to the trade deadline, a few of the nine teams currently within reach of a wild card will likely fall back to Earth and join the ranks of the sellers. One that could get there sooner rather than later is the Diamondbacks. Arizona has dealt with numerous injuries this season, and with them competing in the NL West and hovering around .500 as we reach the end of June, it doesn’t appear as if a postseason berth is in their future. Kelly, Gallen and left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez are likely going to be available and discussed by teams.

As disappointing as it will be to give up on the team’s chances in 2024, the D-backs, with their three movable starting pitchers, would be wise to take advantage of a very lucrative trade market for the sellers.