Macro indicators, retail participation aligning for a multi-decade bull run: Madhu Kela

"Essentially focus on bottom-up ideas, segregate your time of doing research and time of execution. I repeat, again segregate your time of doing research and time of execution very clearly. It is not that I come up with an idea today, so I have to buy it tomorrow. Markets are volatile, something or the other will keep happening," says Madhu Kela, Market Veteran.

So, last 16 years have been more than satisfactory for Indian investors and for Indian markets, how are the next three years looking?
Madhu Kela: But that is the whole point that, are people who have truly believed in the longer range of India are the ones who have actually been able to do well and they have always taken advantage of any market mispricing or any market significant decline. So, over the next, I am sure three years will also be good, but I am very bullish from a next 10-20-year perspective also on India, things are really-really falling in place.

If you look at every macro parameter and since the time I have been around this is the lowest bond spread we have seen between America and India and maybe in last 30 years. Is that not telling us something that the bond spread between 10-year bond yield of America and India are less than 1.5%.

So, I feel now more and more people are actually recognising the India story and more and more money will come and I am so happy that finally the retail public is participating as they are actually benefiting, at least post covid. So, three years will be good.

But let me tell you that good means what? Let us bifurcate the whole market first. So, we have roughly $5 trillion, 48% of the market is owned by founders, roughly 25-27% is owned by domestic institution, roughly 16-17% is owned by foreign institutional investors and balance is owned by real public.

In this entire market cap, there are 580 companies which are above $1 billion market cap. But out of these 580 companies, roughly one-third and these are rough number, roughly one-third are trading at more than 50 PE multiple on a trailing basis. So, a balanced market is where I find a lot of attractiveness.

So, when we say India will do well, if you just invest in Nifty, this is what has happened in the last three years you still made like 14-15% cagr. So, you will continue to hopefully get that 12% to 15% return if you invest in Nifty and if you just stick to really largecap.

Where people like me see an opportunity is on the select sectors, select stocks, and mispricing in the market which happens from time to time. So, when we last visited your channel, I remember January to March and there was literally a lot of panic. So, if you buy India in that time and if you buy a stock specific that is the alpha which is left in the market. So, I will continue to believe that only.

Essentially focus on bottom-up ideas, segregate your time of doing research and time of execution. I repeat, again segregate your time of doing research and time of execution very clearly. It is not that I come up with an idea today, so I have to buy it tomorrow. Markets are volatile, something or the other will keep happening. The last six-nine months have been so eventful whether it is Trump, tariff, global war, oil prices. Now again, today people are talking about Iran and Israel. These things will come and go. But if you keep your homework ready and if you are a really good stock picker and stock investor, these volatility gives you time and opportunity to invest and that to my opinion really creates that extra alpha which people like me are looking at.

But you think that time is going to come sometime during this year because with all the geopolitical tensions and all that is happening around the world, the market has actually quite resilient. In fact for the last 28 days, it has just been range bound, we have done nothing at all at an index level.
Madhu Kela: I would say even though market has been there, look at for instance what has happened to NBFC sector, look at the returns that the sector has given in the last three-four months even in a stable market. Markets have not gone anywhere. In fact, Nifty is only up 6% in last one year. Smallcap is down. Midcap is only up 4% in last one year. But you look at select stories. Even within the NBFC sector, there are something is up 30%, something is up 50%, something is up even 100% in this overall sector. So, that is precisely what I am saying. If we think markets are going to be in a range bound, that is the best time to do stock picking.

So, we have got a list of multibaggers and the headline of this graphic is multibagger stocks not one but many which Madhusudan Kela over his careers has identified. Some of them have been 10x, 20x, 50x, even 100x. It starts with a legendary investment of yours, JSPL, Inox group of companies, Radico Khaitan, many more. But the last part we have kept it blank which is that which are the next new themes or ideas Madhusudan Kela is waiting on and we will call this as Madhusudan Kela’s birthday gift to our viewers.
Madhu Kela: So, I do not have all of these multibaggers, we do not know which one will be 10x and which one will be 100x when we make the investment. It is only a period of time when we start tracking these companies and they deliver, we develop more and more conviction. So, let us say Gujarat Fluoro for instance, I bought the stock maybe at Rs 400-500 five-six years back. At that time I did not know that it is going to be 10x, but I was sure that this company will do well.

So, I feel it is not that it is lot of return is being made, so there will be no multibaggers in times to come. You see forget Indian market, even American markets have delivered so many multibaggers in the last four years. So, markets will always keep giving that opportunity. Today clearly, I see that opportunity, I do not know whether it will be 5x or 10x, but I remain very positive on select NBFC companies because the overall regulatory framework for the NBFC sector has dramatically improved in the last three-four months.

The rate cut has boosted, their liquidity availability in the market because deposits going down, suddenly we see there is lot of liquidity available for these companies and lot of these companies have tightened their belt significantly in the last three-four years in the very tight regulatory regime. So, this is maybe just the beginning for this sector which has not done too much maybe in the last three-four years.