Kentucky Derby Big-Money Longshot Picks From Top Experts

Entering Saturday's Kentucky Derby, the clear favorite in the Kentucky Derby is Journalism, the big, strapping California colt who has won four straight races, including a difficult victory in the Santa Anita Derby. 

At 3-1 in Friday's morning line, Journalism is not an overwhelming favorite, but for most handicappers, he is the class of this field. However, this is the Derby, and with 20 horses set to line up, plus some volatile weather in the forecast, very often just being the class of the field is not enough to secure a win. 

Besides which, if you're a casual picker of horses, there isn't much thrill in going with the favorites, is there? With that in mind, here's a look at the horses that experts from across the country are zeroing in on as potential upset contenders who could keep Journalism out of the roses.  

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Al Bernstein, NBC Sports

Pick: Sandman (9-2)

Not the biggest of lonshots, but Bernstein says (via Yahoo): "(Journalism's) stalking style, however, could see him either getting caught up in the pace or having front-runners backing up in his face in the late going. In my top five, I have four closers and Journalism, and I see the favorite getting caught at the wire. Any one of the closers in my top 5 would not surprise me if they won." (Sandman is at the top of the closer list for Bernstein, with Sovereignty, Burnham Square and Publisher.)

Ray Paulick, The Paulick Report 

Pick: Publisher (28-1)

Says Paulick (via Kentucky.com): "The last time a maiden (a horse that has never won a race) won the Kentucky Derby was Brokers Tip in 1933, but Arkansas Derby runner-up Publisher has improved with every start and is sitting on a big effort to give Steve Asmussen his first victory in the Run for the Roses."

Brad Free, Daily Racing Form

Pick: Baeza (23-1)

Says Free: "I went for it with Baeza, I thought he ran super in the Santa Anita Derby, I think he has room to improve. He worked out nine days after the Santa Anita Derby. Most trainers will wait two weeks before they work a horse out after a tough race, but Baeza was right back on the work track. Trainer John Shirreffs has won the Kentucky Derby before, Flavien Prat is scheduled to ride Baeza. I think he has a ton of upside."

Neil Greenberg, Washington Post

Pick: Luxor Cafe (12-1)

Says Greenberg: "Drawing post position 7, Luxor Café is well-positioned to employ his stalking style effectively. His experience navigating large fields in Japan — all six of his career races had at least 10 horses entered, some as many as 16 — should serve him well in the chaos of the Derby’s 20-horse lineup. With seasoned jockey Joao Moreira aboard and under the guidance of trainer Noriyuki Hori, Luxor Café will aim to make history as the first Japanese-trained horse to win the Derby."

Byron King, Blood Horse

Pick: Sovereignty (9-1)

Says King: "My selection in the 151^st running of the Kentucky Derby is late-running Sovereignty. Won the Fountain of Youth this year with a powerful kick, and he’s proven at Churchill Downs."

Nicole Russo, Daily Racing Form

Pick: Burnham Square (16-1)

Says Russo: "I like Burnham Square for this year’s Kentucky Derby, I think this horse is just training out of his mind. He has really turned my head in his workouts."