Keir Starmer Is Fading Away

Opinion|Britain’s Prime Minister Is Fading Away

It was meant to be a moment to celebrate. A year ago, after nearly a decade and a half in the wilderness, the British Labour Party returned to power — and the man who led them there, Keir Starmer, became prime minister. Yet the anniversary of that achievement has been anything but joyous, soured by rebellion and steeped in bitterness.

A month of mutinies, forcing the government into successive humiliating U-turns, lie behind the miserable milestone. The most recent really stung. When the government announced cuts to welfare payments for 800,000 mostly disabled people, it surely assumed, with its large majority in Parliament, that the legislation would easily pass. Instead, as one estimate suggested the change would push 250,000 people into poverty, discord in the party only grew, hardening into a full-scale revolt of over 100 lawmakers. Desperate to stave it off, the government made last-minute concessions — twice — and just managed to pass the bill.

Crisis, for now, has been averted. But the whole affair is expressive of the discontent that surrounds the government — and most of all the man who just 12 months ago promised Britain a “reset.” Rather than renewal, Mr. Starmer has overseen decline, his first year suffering a steady drop in authority and approval, both among the public and his own party. In fact, a curious phenomenon is taking place: Before Britain’s eyes, Mr. Starmer appears to be losing not just political weight but material substance, too. After just a year in office, Britain’s prime minister is fading away.

This impression is partly his own doing. Domestically, Mr. Starmer’s modus operandi is to leave his parliamentary flock to liaise with an unpopular and heavy-handed gaggle of advisers, courting accusations of absenteeism. “He’s never here,” a Labour lawmaker complained recently. “And his team patronize and infantilize us.” Public opinion is hardly better. In June, the number of Britons rating Mr. Starmer as “incompetent,” “indecisive” and “weak” reached a high, while his overall favorability rankings have dropped to a new low.

Even with four years of his term to go, there’s a palpable feeling in the air that Mr. Starmer’s time may be coming to an end. Any momentum brought about by Labour’s landslide victory last July was halted by his bizarre decision to begin the new era with somber warnings about things “getting worse before they get better” and announcements of imminent cuts to public services. The prime minister accepts that this communications strategy was a mistake, but the damage was done.

Now the phrase “one-term government” is being bandied around and many political observers are actively looking to 2029, when the country goes to the polls again. Commentators and researchers alike are already speculating over whether Nigel Farage, the longtime right-wing firebrand, can lead his Reform UK party to national power. Such a thing was once thought impossible. But given that the most recent polling shows his party would win the most seats if an election were held tomorrow, it’s no longer a far-fetched scenario.