Israel and Turkey on collision course after Ankara severs ties

Turkey fully suspends trade and closes airspace to Israel, a wartime-level rupture that analysts warn could fuel dangerous escalation.

Turkey’s full suspension of economic and trade relations with Israel, coupled with the closure of its airspace, marks an unprecedented escalation that could have far-reaching consequences, Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen-Yanarocak of Tel Aviv University warned in an interview with Maariv.

“A country will completely cut its economic and trade relations with another and closes its airspace to its planes, only during wartime,” Cohen Yanarocak said. “This move is unprecedented, removes mutual dependency, and could lead to strategic escalation.”

The rupture followed Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s announcement earlier this week. According to Cohen-Yanarocak, the deterioration had been building for months. “It didn’t surprise me. I’ve been waiting a long time for these gradual steps,” he said, pointing to earlier maritime sanctions. “The moment Israel declared its intention to expand the military operation in Gaza, they made the decision that very same day to impose maritime sanctions.”

Israeli forces exposing surveillance devices that had reportedly been sold to Damascus by Turkey gave Ankara the trigger it needed. “You could say it was expected to happen, but they were waiting for a specific incident in order to play this card,” he noted.

Danger to the economy, tourism

While immediate disruptions are logistical, flights to Russia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan will now take longer, and Turkish airlines will be barred from Israeli airspace, the real danger is strategic.

“All the mutual dependency between the two countries disappears, and once there is no dependency, it becomes very dangerous because there is nothing to lose,” Cohen Yanarocak warned. “If there’s economy, if there’s tourism, if there are relations—then there’s something to lose, and so each side may ultimately think twice.”

Without tourism, trade, or even shared flight corridors, he cautioned, “the natural restraint vanishes,” paving the way for “more dramatic and undesirable escalations.”

The break also reflects President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's wider ambitions. “Erdogan wants to restore past glory, to once again make Turkey the strongest Muslim state,” Cohen Yanarocak explained. “And when there is some Muslim entity, such as Gaza, that is in serious trouble, the Turkish leader sees himself as the leader of all Sunni Muslims.”

Still, Erdogan is moving cautiously. “He’s not doing it overnight, but rather taking gradual steps,” the analyst said, stressing that this “matches his overall vision.”

The chances of mending ties soon are slim. “As long as we don’t see an end to the war, I don’t think it’s possible to put the genie back in the bottle,” Cohen Yanarocak said. “On paper, it can be done, but there’s a political price.”

With Turkey “reaping major political capital from the war in Gaza,” he added, reversing course will be increasingly difficult. What began as a temporary protest, he concluded, has now become “a structural change in relations, with consequences that will extend far beyond the end of the current war.”