Is It Really Safe to Invest in the S&P 500 Right Now? Here's What History -- and Warren Buffett -- Have to Say

Katie Brockman, The Motley Fool

Sat, Jul 12, 2025, 5:00 PM 5 min read

• The market has been thriving in recent months, but the future is still uncertain.

• No matter what may be looming, the market's long-term future is bright.

• If you're nervous about investing, Warren Buffett can offer some reassuring advice.

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This year has been a wild ride for the stock market. After sinking by nearly 20% between February and April, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has since soared by just around 26% from its low point -- officially reaching a new peak in July.

However, the market can change on a dime, especially with a slew of new policies taking effect in Washington. So is it really safe to invest in the stock market? Here's what history suggests -- and what Warren Buffett has to say about times like these.

The future may be uncertain, but that's never stopped the stock market from thriving over time. In the last 25 years alone, we've experienced multiple unprecedented events and record-breaking downturns. From wars and a global pandemic to the collapse of the tech industry and the Great Recession, the last couple of decades have been rough.

Despite all the volatility, though, the S&P 500 has soared by a staggering 326% since 2000, as of this writing. In other words, you'd have more than quadrupled your money by investing in an S&P 500 index fund and simply holding it through all the market's ups and downs.

While past performance doesn't predict future returns, it can be reassuring to know that the market has recovered from every single downturn it's ever faced -- without fail. No matter what may be coming, it's extremely likely to bounce back.

The key, though, is to maintain a long-term outlook. It can take years for stocks to recover from a particularly nasty bear market or recession, but the longer you hold your investments, the less likely it is that you'll lose money.

In fact, analysis from investing firm Capital Group found that, historically, there's a 33% chance the S&P 500 will earn negative returns over just one year. Over five years, that chance drops to 7%. And over the last 82 years, there's never been a 10-year period in which the index experienced negative total returns.

In other words, if you were to invest in an S&P 500-tracking fund and hold it for a decade, it's extremely unlikely that you'll lose money -- no matter how volatile the market is in that period.

In 2008, at the height of the financial crisis and the Great Recession, Warren Buffett wrote an opinion piece for The New York Times. In it, he offered some valuable lessons for investors on how to navigate downturns while still setting themselves up for long-term success.