How Trump’s Strike on Iran Might Affect China’s Calculus on Taiwan

President Trump’s decision to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, after earlier denouncing U.S. embroilment in foreign wars, introduces another complication for China’s leaders trying to fathom how he might handle conflict over Taiwan.

Chinese officials and experts were already trying to game out Mr. Trump’s approach to Taiwan, the island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory. They will now likely be assessing the Iran strikes for new insights into Mr. Trump, who had opposed military action months earlier while he pursued diplomacy, and then rained missiles and bombs on three key nuclear sites on Sunday.

For China, Mr. Trump is a bit of a wild card in scenarios of how the United States would respond to Beijing’s efforts to bring Taiwan to heel, including any attempt to take the island by force. The United States has long helped fend off China’s military pressure and deter a possible attack by selling Taiwan weapons and holding out the option that it could send forces if war erupts.

Some Chinese analysts have questioned whether, with the right cajoling or warnings, Mr. Trump may be persuaded to ease America’s support of Taiwan. After all, in his trade war with China, Mr. Trump veered from imposing sky-high tariffs to agreeing to a provisional truce, basically backing down after China choked off shipments of critical minerals. The Iran strikes further illustrated Mr. Trump’s mercurial style.

“After the Iran strikes, I suspect that Chinese leaders will now be more nervous about testing President Trump’s resolve” on Taiwan, said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “Caution is warranted, both because Trump appears more willing to use force than many expected, but also because his actions seem less predictable.”

Before the attack, China seemed to have stepped up efforts to sound out Mr. Trump’s thinking on Taiwan.