How Trump Can Prevent a War Over Taiwan

Opinion|Here’s How Trump Can Prevent a War Over Taiwan

China and the United States are closer than they’ve ever been to a war over Taiwan.

A dangerous feedback loop has set in over the past decade: Taiwanese defiance toward China provokes aggressive bluster from Beijing, leading to stronger rhetorical support for Taiwan in Washington. The self-reinforcing pattern repeats itself. Each time, it moves Taiwan more to the center of the U.S.-China relationship, increases the risk of conflict and provokes fretful analysis over what to do about this seemingly intractable situation.

This arc was not preordained. Nor is it immutable, and in Donald Trump, the United States has a norm-defying president uniquely positioned to reverse it.

The Trump administration’s best bet for avoiding war would be to boldly seek a fresh deal with China, restoring equilibrium across the Taiwan Strait by offering to dial back U.S. defense buildups in the region and putting Taiwan on notice that American military backup is neither assured nor boundless.

If that seems deceptively simple and logical, it’s because it’s worked before, to everyone’s benefit.

Taiwan has been a thorn in U.S.-China relations ever since Communist forces took control of China in 1949, driving the U.S.-backed Nationalists to Taiwan. China has never given up its goal of unifying the island with the mainland. In the 1970s, Beijing and Washington reached a nuanced compromise: The United States affirmed that the government in Beijing was China’s sole legal authority and acknowledged Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China. America also refrained from supporting Taiwan’s independence and limited contact with Taipei to unofficial channels, even while providing it arms and other military backing.

This ambivalent balancing act proved remarkably successful, with the resulting stability allowing China, Taiwan and much of Asia to prosper. The United States benefited greatly from soaring trade and other cooperation with the region, and to this day Taiwan remains a vibrant, self-governing democracy.