How does the NHL draft lottery work? Everything you need to know

The 2025 NHL draft class includes a number of great players, including Erie Otters defenseman Matthew Schaefer, Saginaw Spirit center Michael Misa and Boston College center James Hagens.

But the No. 1 pick doesn't simply go to the team with the worst regular-season record. Instead, a lottery will determine the final order of the first 16 picks of the first round.

Tune in to watch the proceedings Monday (7 ET, ESPN), and read on for more intel on how this all works, along with which teams have the best shot at landing the No. 1 pick.

Why is there a draft lottery?

A lottery provides multiple non-playoff teams with the chance at getting the first overall pick -- an important consideration given the premium value of early first-round picks. In theory, this also reduces any sense that certain teams are not doing their best to ice a competitive lineup (to put it charitably), since there is no guarantee of getting that No. 1 pick by losing the most games.

Plus, it adds some extra excitement for half of the league's fan bases in the time between the end of the regular season and the draft lottery.

How does the actual lottery work?

A set of 14 ping pong balls are placed in a lottery machine, which allows for 1,001 combinations. Each team in the lottery is assigned a set of random four-number combinations. The worse a team's record, the more combinations they are assigned; so the team with the worst record this past season, the San Jose Sharks, gets 185, representing an 18.5% chance of winning the first lottery draw.

An accounting firm runs the process for the league, and it keeps tabs on which teams are lined up with each combination; there is also one combination that is deleted from the proceedings (to make it an even 1,000 instead of 1,001).

The first draw of ping pong balls determines the No. 1 pick, based on the assigned combinations. However, since a set of rule changes in 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots in the order; therefore, if a team in spot Nos. 12-16 wins the first draw, they move up accordingly, and the team lowest in the standings (in this year's case, the Sharks) slots in at No. 1.

There is then a second draw, to determine the next possible spot, using similar rules as the first. Similarly, a team in spot Nos. 13-16 can still move up only 10 slots, so they would move up accordingly and the next lowest available team in the standings would get pick No. 2.

Regardless of which teams win the draft lottery draws, picks in Rounds 2-7 are in reverse order of the final standings following the playoffs.

A special wrinkle for 2025: For the first time ever, the draws will occur live on the broadcast, meaning fans can watch along to experience all of the drama in real time.

Which teams have the best chance at winning the draws this year?

Here is the full list of each club's draft lottery chances:

1. San Jose Sharks: 18.5%
2. Chicago Blackhawks: 13.5%
3. Nashville Predators: 11.5%
4. Philadelphia Flyers: 9.5%
5. Boston Bruins: 8.5%
6. Seattle Kraken: 7.5%
7. Buffalo Sabres: 6.5%
8. Anaheim Ducks: 6.0%
9. Pittsburgh Penguins: 5.0%
10. New York Islanders: 3.5%
11. New York Rangers: 3.0%
12. Detroit Red Wings: 2.5%
13. Columbus Blue Jackets: 2.0%
14. Utah Hockey Club: 1.5%
15. Vancouver Canucks: 0.5%
16. Calgary Flames*: 0.5%

* Note that the Flames' first-round pick in this draft or the 2025 draft belongs to the Montreal Canadiens as part of a trade in 2022 for Sean Monahan. The pick is top-10 protected, so if the Flames win the lottery, and move up to No. 6, they would instead transfer the Florida Panthers' first-round pick.

Any other rules I need to know?

As part of the 2021 lottery rule changes, the NHL also decreed that a team cannot win the lottery more than twice in a five-year span (starting with the 2022 lottery).

The Sharks won the lottery last year, so if they do it again this year, they will be ineligible to do so until 2029.