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Heisman watch: None of the preseason favorites are serious contenders through the first 4 weeks of 2025

The Heisman Trophy race has changed a lot over the first four weeks of the season.

None of the top five Heisman favorites after the first four weeks of 2025 were among the favorites before Week 1. And only a couple of the preseason favorites currently have decent odds to win the trophy.

Preseason favorite Arch Manning is now at 25-1 at BetMGM following a rough start to the season. There’s plenty of time for Manning to turn his season around in SEC play, and his odds will likely get lower if he plays well against Florida in Week 6.

You have to scroll down a long way to find Clemson’s Cade Klubnik and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers. Klubnik was +900 to start the season. His odds are now 100-1 following Clemson’s 1-3 start. Sellers started the season at 14-1; he’s now at 80-1 as the Gamecocks are 2-2.

All five of the current favorites are still QBs, however. After Travis Hunter broke a three-year run of quarterbacks as Heisman winners, it’s very likely a QB will get the award again in 2025.

Here’s a look at the early frontrunners for the Heisman. We have a feeling that only one or two of these players will be in New York City as a finalist.

Oklahoma QB John Mateer (+700)

2025 stats: 95-of-141 passing, 1,215 yards, 6 TDs, 3 interceptions; 190 rushing yards, 5 TDs

After scoring 44 total touchdowns in 2024, Mateer is carrying the Oklahoma offense as the Sooners are 4-0. He’s been responsible for all of Oklahoma’s TDs in those wins and also leads the team in rushing.

Against the Wolverines, Mateer rushed for two scores and threw another TD. On Saturday against Auburn, he threw a TD to WR Isaiah Sategna in the second quarter that the SEC later said shouldn’t have counted and then scored the go-ahead TD with 4:54 to go on a 9-yard run.

Mateer will continue to be the Heisman favorite as long as he keeps carrying the Oklahoma offense and the Sooners keep winning. But for the latter to happen, he’s going to need some help.

Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (+900)

2025 stats: 76-of-99 passing, 975 yards, 14 TDs, 0 interceptions; 76 rushing yards, 2 TDs

Mendoza’s passing numbers are comical through four games. He’d threaten the FBS record for completion percentage if he can slightly improve on his 76.8% completion rate. Bo Nix set the record two seasons ago at 77.45%.

Indiana’s non-conference schedule was very easy, and Mendoza carved up Kennesaw State and Indiana State after he didn’t throw a TD pass in the Week 1 win over Old Dominion. But the Cal transfer showed that he can slice and dice a Big Ten opponent in Week 4, even if Illinois might not have deserved to be ranked No. 9.

Mendoza was 21-of-23 passing for 267 yards and threw five TDs in the 63-10 win over the Illini. Those numbers came in three quarters too. Indiana didn’t throw a pass in the fourth quarter and still scored two touchdowns.

Oregon QB Dante Moore (12-1)

2025 stats: 71-of-95 passing, 962 yards, 11 TDs, 1 interception; 87 rushing yards

Moore has seamlessly taken over as the Ducks’ starter and could be Oregon’s third different Heisman finalist QB in three seasons.

In a 41-7 win over Oregon State in Week 4, Moore was 21-of-31 passing for 305 yards and four touchdowns. That followed an efficient but unspectacular game at Northwestern in Week 3 where he threw his first interception of the season.

If you’re bullish on Moore’s Heisman chances, you should probably buy now. The No. 6 Ducks visit No. 3 Penn State on Saturday night. An Oregon win — and a big game from Moore — is going to shrink his odds considerably.

Miami QB Carson Beck (12-1)

2025 stats: 82-of-112 passing, 972 yards, 7 TDs, 3 interceptions; 19 rushing yards, 1 TD

Beck had thrown at least two touchdowns in each of Miami’s first three games of the season before the Hurricanes’ offense looked sluggish for much of the game against Florida. Beck was 17-of-30 passing for 160 yards and an interception against the Gators. Miami went 50 minutes between touchdowns in the win and only pulled away with two scores inside the final five minutes.

Will the offense look better against Florida State in Week 6? If it does, Beck will continue to be a Heisman favorite. Freshman Malachi Toney and LSU transfer CJ Daniels have stepped in as his top targets and combined for 40 receptions for 459 yards and four scores so far this season.

Georgia QB Gunner Stockton (14-1)

2025 stats: 63-of-89 passing, 721 yards, 4 TDs, 0 interceptions; 124 rushing yards, 3 TDs

Stockton is the only one of the players in the top five who has played just three games so far this season. Georgia was off in Week 4 ahead of its game at home vs. Alabama in Week 5.

After a milquetoast start to the season, Stockton needed a big game against Tennessee in Week 3. And he delivered. He was 23-of-31 passing for 304 yards and two touchdowns — including a massive throw to London Humphreys on fourth down late in the fourth quarter — while also rushing for a TD.

If Stockton is the best QB on the field against the Crimson Tide, his Heisman candidacy will get stronger.

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