Five Out: Circumvention Edition

Just What Would Be A Smoking Gun, To You?

Five Out returns, and yes, is going to comment on the Clippers.

1. Alperen Sengun MVP Level Tournament:Alpie averaged 21.6pts/10.1rbs/6.6ast in 30 minutes a game at Eurobasket 2025. Alperen Sengun might have been the best player in the EuroBasket 2025 tournament. The award went to The Schrodent, and it was well-deserved, as Dennis Schroder plays like Michael Jordan for Germany. Franz Wagner was a tournament All Star, as was Sengun. Alpie had an MVP case, too. This was an unexpected and great finish for a Turkey team that didn’t have another high-level NBA starter, like Germany. Turkey lost once, in the Final. Hopefully the Rockets watched the tournament. (I’m sure they did, but really saw what Alpie could do with moving, cutting, teammates.)

2. The Lost Treasure of Kevin Durant. Way back when Kevin Durant was a Golden State Worrier, he dabbled in Bitcoin. Without getting into that whole subject, Bitcoin was relatively cheap for a item that only exists through the power of belief, around $350-$500 per BTC. Now it’s over $100,000 (and this is why I’m an analyst and not a trader). The thing is, KD lost his password. On the one hand, this is good, as he probably would have sold up 100% or 1000%, or something, rather than up 15,000%. On the other hand, if he can’t find the password somehow, well, that asset is more lost than fabled pirate treasure.

3. Mark Cuban, Steve Ballmer and investing. It was…interesting, that Mark Cuban immediately leapt to the defense of Steve Ballmer in ClipperCapspiration. I suspect Mark did something like the Kawhi deal with Dirk Nowitski, but didn’t funnel money through a completely fraudulent company that ended up in Federal Bankruptcy Court, a place where bullshit still walks, and money tells the story. As to Cuban’s claims that roughly amount to “Hey, us billionaires have all sorts of investments going on, we can’t possibly know all of them.”, well, that’s true, as far as it goes. Steve Ballmer might well have 50 billion in bonds under management, in a private office, or externally. He wouldn’t know every trade, every holding by heart. But when it comes to the LA Clippers, I just don’t believe the same applies to the man who personally measured toilet distances in his arena. The Clippers are his favorite toy, and he appears to be intimately involved in everything.

4.Gunsmoke. In assessing the story uncovered by Pablo Torre about the LA Clippers, Aspiration and Steve Ballmer I’m always shocked when I listen to, or read some commenter saying “they don’t have a smoking gun”. Unless the demand is for an actual gun, smoking, and someone with a bullet hole in them, on site, yes, they do. I am pretty sure there’s more, and that more will be revealed, now that other news organizations are also on the case (ESPN has some very good “me too” reporting from Baxter Holmes). There is already enough evidence to convict, if all Pablo has reported is true. Evidence weaker than this has literally sent men to death row. Do not be suckered into the idea of circumstantial evidence as weaker, being floated by various commenters. This simply isn’t true, if the quality of the circumstantial evidence is high, as it is in the matter of the Clippers.

5. Standards of Proof. In civil court (lawsuits, generally) the standard of proof is “preponderance of evidence”, that is to say, any amount greater than 50%. In a criminal case the standard is “beyond a reasonable doubt”. This one is trickier, as some people seem to take this as “beyond any possibility however remote”. That is not the standard. In the matter of NBA cap circumvention the standard is roughly “If the Commissioner believes it’s there, including the use of circumstantial evidence.” To whomever may be reading, or care, this is NOT a criminal trial. The standard of evidence isn’t “beyond a reasonable doubt” and especially isn’t “beyond any possibility at all”.

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