Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Week 6: Rico Dowdle and Michael Carter step up

Week 5 is nearly in the books, giving us another run of the waiver wire as we approach the midpoint of the fantasy football regular season. As always, every player in this article is available in over half of Yahoo leagues... with one notable exception.

▶ Quarterback

Sam Darnold, Seahawks

Darnold is the highest-scoring quarterback available on waivers by a wide margin. His advanced data is even better than his fantasy output. Darnold leads the league in both EPA per play and completion percent over expected.

He has multiple touchdowns in 3-of-5 games and has scored at least 15 points in all but one contest, his Week 1 debut in Seattle. The Seahawks’ run-first mentality will hold him back from weekly QB1 production, but Darnold is the best long-term bet you can make off the wire.

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins

The No. 2 QB in fantasy points who is available in over half of Yahoo leagues is Tua. His advanced numbers aren’t as pretty, but things have drastically turned around for the Dolphins since their blowout loss to Indy. After Week 1, Tua ranks 12th in EPA per play and seventh in CPOE. Tagovailoa had been bubbling under the surface in Weeks 2 through 4 with three top-20 finishes but no QB1 outings. He got home in Week 5 with three touchdowns and a top-10 showing. There is far more systemic risk with Tua than Darnold, making the latter a much better add off waivers, but you could also do worse than Tagovailoa.

Jaxson Dart, Giants

Dart remains a mixed bag as a passer. He threw for a measly 202 yards on 40 attempts in Week 5 but did find the end zone twice, albeit with two interceptions. Dart also had three of his passes dropped, including this well-thrown deep shot to Darius Slayton.

Most importantly, Dart ran seven times for 55 yards. He has at least 50 rushing yards in both of his starts. Dart’s mobility will keep him afloat as a high-end QB2 until he figures things out as a passer.

Michael Penix Jr., Falcons

Penix turned things around before his bye in Week 4 with 312 yards and two scores. He did, however, throw one interception. The Falcons also remained frustratingly run-oriented with a -8% pass rate over expected. That will hurt his fantasy outlook in the long run, but it’s hard to imagine the Falcons establishing their ground game for four quarters against the Bills in Week 6. Volume shouldn’t be as much of an issue for him this week, and it’s possible he stays hot after using the bye to examine what he can replicate from his strong performance in Week 4.

Bryce Young, Panthers

Young survived in Week 5 with a comeback win over the Dolphins and two passing touchdowns for fantasy managers. He gets an even easier matchup in Week 6 versus a Dallas defense that has given up more fantasy points to opposing passers than any other team, and it’s not a close race. Young also gets the Jets after Dallas. New York ranks dead last in EPA per dropback allowed, one spot below the Cowboys.

Breaking down all of the NFL’s biggest Week 4 storylines, including Drake Maye’s star-making turn in Buffalo.

▶ Running Back

Rico Dowdle, Panthers

Dowdle is rostered in 58 percent of Yahoo leagues, making him a “Not in my league” hall of famer. His Week 5 performance, however, was too good to leave out. Dowdle ran for 206 yards on 23 attempts and found the end zone late in Carolina’s win over Miami. Per Pro Football Focus, his 169 yards after contact were easily the most of a running back in a single game this year.

Dowdle looked like a star no matter how you slice the data. If Chuba Hubbard is out again for Week 6, Dowdle is in line for an RB2 ranking.

Michael Carter, Cardinals

As was reported Sunday morning, Carter was the lead back for the Cardinals in Week 5. He saw 67 percent of the team’s carries and ran half of the routes with a solid 59 percent snap share. Carter ran 18 times for 51 yards and one score. He also caught five passes. Carter wasn’t overly impressive on his touches, but he saw the bulk of the work on the ground and through the air. That’s hard to find on waivers over a month into the season.

Kendre Miller, Saints

Miller has fully forced a backfield by committee with Alvin Kamara and rightfully so. He is averaging 3.9 yards after contact compared to 2.7 for Kamara. Miller has 15 missed tackles forced to 14 for the veteran. That is despite Kamara having twice as many carries as Miller through five weeks. That split has shrunk in recent games to the point of Miller leading the team with 10 carries in Week 5. His role is big enough for him to have some modest standalone value in Week 6 versus the Patriots.

Isaiah Davis, Jets

Davis stepped into the RB2 role in New York with Braelon Allen on injured reserve. Breece Hall also missed some time midgame because of an undisclosed injury, further inflating Davis’s role. Davis wound up playing on 44 percent of the Jets’ snaps and logged a 44 percent route rate. He only saw one carry but did catch three passes for 28 yards. Davis is more of a handcuff than a standalone fantasy bet, but he is likely one of the best insurance options available on waivers.

Tyler Allgeier, Falcons

He just keeps getting away with it. Bijan Robinson is on pace for a top-five fantasy season and Allgeier has double-digit touches in three of four games. He has two touchdowns and was a top 30 back both times he scored. The Falcons are big underdogs to the Bills this week. After that, they are favored in six of their final seven contests in the fantasy regular season. Allegier is a viable FLEX play as a favorite and is the best handcuff in the league.

Hassan Haskins, Chargers

Omarion Hampton left Week 5 with an ankle injury and was spotted in a walking boot after the game. That alone makes it look unlikely he plays in Week 6. Haskins is the only other back on the roster for the Chargers, though Kimani Vidal will be called up or signed to the active roster outright at some point. Haskins out-carried Vidal 5-4 last week. Both backs logged one target and a 22 percent snap share. There’s no clear bet to make in this backfield, but I will be prioritizing Haskins, who Jim Harbaugh coached at Michigan and made the roster over Vidal this summer.

▶ Wide Receiver

Ryan Flournoy, Cowboys

It took a week, but Flournoy might be the biggest beneficiary of the CeeDee Lamb injury after all. His route rate jumped to 64 percent in Week 5 and he earned a monstrous 31 percent target share. Flournoy cashed in with six catches for 114 yards and two carries for another 10 yards. The bad news is that Lamb could be back for Week 6 and he wasn’t the only Cowboys receiver to miss Week 5. Kavontae Turpin was also sidelined, opening even more routes for Flournoy. If either player is healthy before Dallas’ next game, Flournoy will likely be sent to the bench.

Tory Horton, Seahawks

Horton has scored in three of his first five NFL games and added a punt return touchdown to his ledger early in the year as well. He is the only receiver in NFL history with three receiving scores and a punt return touchdown in their first five games. His 54 percent route rate leaves a lot to be desired, but he is playing well enough to push Cooper Kupp for snaps going forward.

Kendrick Bourne, 49ers

I have no idea what is going on with the 49ers’ receivers health-wise, but the team doesn’t seem to either. Ricky Pearsall can’t get past his lingering knee injury, while Jauan Jennings adds a new ailment to his practice report every week. Neither player suited up on Thursday, paving the way for Bourne to see 11 targets, good for a 25 percent target share, and a 30 percent air yards share. If this role were guaranteed to hold into Week 6, Bourne would be the clear waiver wire add of the week. The health situations for the receivers and even George Kittle — who is eligible to return from injured reserve — make Bourne a riskier add.

Tre Tucker, Raiders

Tucker was dropped by swathes of fantasy managers after a Week 4 dud. He didn’t blow up in Week 5, but he stabilized with four catches for 62 yards and a nine-yard carry. Tucker is up to a respectable 18 percent target share on a 94 percent route rate this year. Things finally let up for a down-bad Raiders squad this week with a matchup against Tennessee. If their offense is ever going to get on track, Week 6 is the time.

Josh Downs, Colts

Like Tucker, Downs recently fell below a 50 percent roster rate. With Alec Pierce out for the past two games, his role has actually grown, resulting in route rates of 71 and 72 percent. He has a 20 percent target share with .25 targets per route in two games without Pierce. Downs isn’t going to be a big hit this year, but he could salvage some WR3 production if Pierce remains sidelined in Week 6.

▶ Tight End

Mason Taylor, Jets

Taylor got off to a slow start this year, likely because of the high-ankle sprain he rushed back from in training camp. Over the past two weeks, Taylor has run a route on 80 percent of Justin Fields’ dropbacks and has a stellar 25 percent target share. He is going to finish as a TE1 in back-to-back games. The Jets have seemingly found their No. 2 receiver and fantasy managers get to play him in their tight end spot.

A.J. Barner, Seahawks

Barner is stuck in a part-time role for now, but his target share is on the rise. He hit a season-high mark of 13 percent two weeks ago and upped the ante to 22 percent in Week 5. Barner also leads the Seahawks with five red zone targets and three targets inside the 10-yard line. Barner is a touchdown-or-bust TE2 with room to grow into a weekly TE1.

Theo Johnson, Giants

Johnson is starting to come to life with Jaxson Dart under center. The second-year tight end had a 10 percent target share and was targeted on a tenth of his routes with Russell Wilson as the starter. He is up to a 21 percent target share with .23 targets per route in two Dart starts. He also has three touchdowns over the past two weeks. The touchdowns are fluky, but the volume might not be. Johnson is a viable TE2 who could be on more of a breakout trajectory than fantasy managers realize.

Jake Tonges, 49ers

After an 11-target game in Week 5, Tonges should be one of the best tight end bets off the waiver wire. As previously mentioned, Kittle could be back this week, and that would immediately send Tonges to the bench in real life and in fantasy. The 49ers are a team where fantasy managers are largely stuck in a holding pattern until the team releases its first injury report of the week.