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Fantasy Football Panic Meter: Is there any hope for Dolphins to rebound after horrific start?

Everybody needs to have a service job at some point in their life.

I worked in fast food as a teenager. The people and their demand for food were constant. Having to multitask, or figure out how to do a few things at once, was a skill I developed out of necessity. It’s been years since I’ve been in a similar position, but being there helped me calibrate to the environment.

We went months without football. And then Week 1 hit us with a wave of action, data and analysis. But we’re not calibrated to the flow of information yet. Everything feels like a referendum on the season when we’ve got months to go. However, in some cases, it’s hard to see how things improve after such a disastrous start.

Let's gauge exactly how worried we should be.

Big trouble in Little Miami 😱

After Miami’s offseason moves, I expected something like this.

Well, to be fair, I didn’t expect Daniel Jones to resurrect his career in one week. And let’s give it some time before calling him “Indiana” Jones. I get it’s catchy. But a QB with Jones’ track record should notch a few more wins before earning the nickname of multi-generational action hero. Anyway, the situation lent itself to the Dolphins needing to pass. But Tua Tagovailoa’s response was something I didn’t expect.

In the past, Tagovailoa’s robotic approach to the passing game was his superpower. It seemed like blind faith at times. Couple his release speed with the quickness of his two receivers, and the Dolphins were a problem. Indianapolis found a way to short-circuit the operation.

2023: 2.33 (average time to throw), 0.15 (EPA per dropback)
2024: 2.29, 0.25
2025: 2.66, -0.50

You can see the hesitation in the clip. And it wasn’t because of the defensive pressure. DC Lou Anarumo only blitzed him on seven dropbacks. The Colts’ front only had him under duress 22.2% of the time. It was the secondary, forcing the hitches in Miami’s aerial attack. Even worse than the drop-off in efficiency was the passing distribution.

Tyreek Hill: 19.4% (target share)
Jaylen Waddle: 16.1%
Malik Washington: 16.1%
Tanner Conner: 12.9%
De’Von Achane: 12.9%

Seven different pass-catchers earned at least two targets on Sunday. A far cry from the “condensed offense without Jonnu Smith” we thought we were getting in August. But there are some salvageable parts from Sunday’s blowout.

Hill leading the team in targets and air yards gives some (small) indication he’ll be the beneficiary should the offense get back in rhythm. His and Achane’s roles have enough volume to be floor plays at least in Week 2 against the same Patriots’ defense that let Geno Smith throttle them for 300+ passing yards. However, I’m looking for other options if I’ve got Tagovailoa or Waddle (9.5% air yard share) on my roster. Both will need multiple performances for me to trust them in my lineup during the season.

Panic Meter: High

Patriots Offense: Still a work in progress 🤔

On one hand, I didn’t put any respect on HC Pete Carroll’s name. He’s still got his fastball. The Raiders pressured Drake Maye on 39.6% of his dropbacks (10th-highest rate in Week 1). Meanwhile, Las Vegas’ secondary had the Patriots’ QB1 second-guessing the coverage. His 2.88-second average time to throw was the fifth-longest of any starter. Essentially, this defense was ready for a young QB like Maye.

On the other hand, Maye did have some opportunities to keep the offense on schedule. But they got away from him.

Maye’s 50.0% passing success rate from a clean pocket was below the league average. He ranked in the bottom 10 in conversion rate on obvious passing downs (27.3%). Maye was still able to mitigate pressure well (despite the four sacks) and scramble to keep drives alive. But the passing game still needs time to come together. And after looking at who was on the field most of the time, it’s easy to see why.

Kayshon Boutte: 83.0% (route rate), 17.8% (target share)
Pop Douglas: 73.6%, 15.6%
Stefon Diggs : 69.8%, 15.6%

Despite the preseason buzz, Diggs was on a pitch count to start the season. A fair reality for the soon-to-be 32-year-old WR coming off an ACL tear and a clearer window into the pass-game struggles on Sunday. While Boutte and Douglas have been serviceable, neither has the same ability to create separation as the former All-Pro WR. I’m still holding onto Maye for his mobility and trading for Diggs, as we should expect to see his routes and targets rise over the course of the season.

Panic Meter: Low to Moderate

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We all knew to draft Zach Charbonnet, right? 🤯

I’m coping right now. Let me talk through this.

Kenneth Walker III sustained a foot injury during training camp, sidelining him for multiple practices. It wasn’t until the team started preparing for Week 1 that the fourth-year RB got in more regular sessions with the team. So, a sluggish season opener isn’t outlandish. We just agreed Stefon Diggs needs time to get right. However, Diggs doesn’t have to deal with the same level of competition for touches.

Once again, Walker gave Zach Charbonnet an inch, and the UCLA product took a mile. Everybody knew Charbonnet was going to be a problem when No. 26 got the goal-line plunge. If only he were a TD vulture. Instead, the RB with the mid-round ADP showed up his early-round counterpart in every efficiency metric.

Rushing Success Rate: 75.0% (Charbonnet), 30.0% (Walker)
Adj. Yards after Contact per Rush: 2.5, 1.7
Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 16.7%, 0.0%

The glass-half-full take for Walker managers (i.e., me): post-game reports didn’t indicate a setback. There’s a chance for him to get back to full strength. However, Sunday was Charbonnet’s seventh game with double-digit touches. And if his boxscore stats haven’t emphasized his on-field ability, his peripherals make the case for a split backfield even once Walker is healthy.

Panic Meter: Moderate to high

[Week 2 Half-PPR Fantasy Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | FLEX | D/ST | Kickers]

A slow start for AJ Brown makes sense 🫤

If you had told me this video was from last Thursday, I’d believe you.

Fantasy managers had to wait until kickoff on Thursday, plus an extra 58 minutes and nine seconds to see their second-round pick earn a target. No, the Eagles didn’t demolish the Cowboys, requiring less of Philadelphia’s passing game. Yes, Brown ran a route on every one of Jalen Hurts’ dropbacks. And yet, we had to wait four quarters for their WR1 to get involved. However, I’m willing to overlook the Week 1 pitfall for a couple of reasons.

Hurts averaged 4.9 air yards per attempt. While he still threw toward the boundary, the Eagles’ game plan isolated Dallas’ ancillary coverage defenders. The shorter targets benefited the pass-catchers with shorter receiving aDOTs. And, unfortunately, Brown, leading the team at 12.6 yards in ’24, wasn’t one of them. Another hint at the shift is in the distribution of passes compared to last season.

WR (target share): 35.0% (Week 1), 63.6% (2024)
RB: 25.0%, 16.2%
TE: 40.0%, 20.2%

The Eagles' WRs only earning 35.0% of the targets is a single-game career low since Hurts took over as the starter. Plus, we’re only a couple of weeks removed from Brown working back from an offseason hamstring injury. The dud in the boxscore won’t make fantasy managers feel any better, but after watching the Chiefs give up 318 yards to the Chargers’ receivers, we should expect to see Brown catching a few more passes in Week 2.