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Fantasy Football: Key players to watch in every Week 3 game

My reasons for rewatching movies vary from flick to flick. Sometimes I need some white noise while I work. In other situations, the quotes bring me back for another ride ("Do they speak English in what?"). But mostly, I’m looking for details I might’ve missed before.

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Similarly, these football games in the early fantasy football season have been absolute cinema. The plot twists and endings almost require a cooldown after experiencing them. So, to keep me focused during each contest, here are the players I’ll be watching from each team in Week 3.

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

I understand it’s only been two weeks, but seeing Kyle Pitts Sr. in the top 12 TEs is sight for sore eyes. And touchdowns aren’t buoying his rank. In fact, he’s yet to find the end zone. Instead, his 6.5 targets per game (seventh-most among TEs) to go with 1.55 YPRR (9th) highlights what we saw in him as a rookie: The ideal athletic receiving option for an aggressive QB. And with Michael Penix Jr. under center, it’s all coming together for Pitts.

Tetairoa McMillan has been a WR1 since the Panthers’ season opener. If it wasn’t his 26.5% target rate in Week 1 that crowned him as the lead option for Bryce Young, McMillan’s absurd 8.2 yards after the catch per reception against the Cardinals ended the discussion. Even when Young has to look elsewhere, McMillan’s ability to work through traffic or separate from defenders will have the Falcons accounting for him before every snap.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings

Tee Higgins has my panic meter flicking to the right with Joe Burrow sidelined for the next few months. As the primary boundary receiver, the connection between No. 9 and No. 5 on out-breaking routes would be hard for anyone to replicate. Sunday will be our first glimpse into what more HC Zac Taylor and OC Dan Pitcher can do with less under center. Without a noticeable shift, the WR1B’s fantasy value might be in trouble.

If you’re looking for a sneaky FLEX option, I’ve got my eyes on Jalen Nailor. I’m anticipating more dropbacks from the Vikings with Carson Wentz under center. Nailor’s been the WR2 behind Justin Jefferson (23.8% and 15.0% target rate). And, of course, Cincinnati’s secondary has allowed the 11th-most passing yards per game. Since Nailor primarily operates from the slot, I’d expect Wentz to look Nailor’s way in key passing situations to keep Minnesota on the move.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Hand up, I have my doubts about the sustainability of Daniel Jones’ productivity. He’s faced pressure at an above-average rate (38.0%), but taken just two sacks. However, consider the play-calling. HC Shane Steichen is dialing up play-action concepts at the third-highest rate and using Jones’ mobility to keep defenses on their toes. This makes Jones a top option for fantasy managers working through injuries at the QB position.

If you haven’t already, stash Elic Ayomanor on your bench. The rookie WR has averaged 6.5 targets per game and has a larger share of the Titans’ air yards than Calvin Ridley (40.5% to 28.1%). Week 3 is the first time Cam Ward will face a defensive front with an average pressure rate below 30.0%. If this year’s 1.01 gets more time to operate, we’ll all know who Ayomanor is before Sunday Night football.

Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns

I understand Matthew Golden was the 23rd-overall draft pick. He broke Green Bay’s 22-year streak of avoiding first-round WRs. However, he entered a crowded receiving corps. Nine different pass-catchers earned a target from Jordan Love in Week 1. Without Jayden Reed on the field, I’ll be looking for more slot snaps and targets for the rookie against a Browns’ defense that has caused trouble for receivers on the outside.

I wasn’t surprised to see Quinshon Judkins take over the Browns’ backfield as the lead rusher. His 48.0% share of the totes spoke to his preseason and Week 1 absence. My interest is in his passing-game role. Without any significant time to work with Joe Flacco, Judkins earned three targets, displacing Dylan Sampson as the primary receiving RB. The Packers will limit any production from the Browns, but let’s see if Judkins’ workload continues to expand.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

I’m trying to figure out if any Texans’ WR is worth rostering. Outside of Nico Collins, the answer can be "None of the above." The data certainly points us in that direction. Between Justin Watson, Xavier Hutchinson, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, no one has earned more than three targets in a game. A 70.0% route rate is the best you can find out of the bunch. Christian Kirk’s imminent return only adds more uncertainty to the target distribution. I’m hoping to see someone step up behind Collins, but it’s unclear who that might be.

Things can only get better for Brian Thomas Jr.. Well, at least that’s the hope. Travis Hunter and Dyami Brown generated more yards and first downs than Thomas in Week 1. Brown and Parker Washington turned into Trevor Lawrence’s favorite targets against the Bengals. Even worse, questions of effort surfaced after a couple of miscues between Thomas and Lawrence. Facing Derek Stingley Jr. won’t make things any easier for the second-year WR, but any hint of the talent we saw in '24 should put fantasy managers at ease.

New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I’ll be willing to send out buy-low offers for Breece Hall after Sunday. The offseason storyline of Braelon Allen forcing a timeshare looks more like fan fiction than fact. Hall’s rushing shares have been 70.4% and 83.%. He’s also earned double-digit target shares in both contests. After Week 2’s low lights from the offense, having Tyrod Taylor under center won’t do much to ease our minds. With another potential dud on tap, a strong set of touches for Hall will have him near the top of my trade targets list.

Baker Mayfield continues to impress in Tampa. The offensive line injuries have had Mayfield under duress on over 40.0% of his dropbacks. However, he’s notched efficiency marks of 0.28 and 0.14 EPA per dropback in consecutive games. Plus, the rushing is still there. He’s averaged 36.0 yards per game, which is seventh-most among QBs. The play-by-play might be hard to watch, but Mayfield’s going to find a way to stay in the top 10 each week.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots

DK Metcalf’s move to Pittsburgh raised questions about his projected workload in a new offense with a new QB. However, the Steelers’ depth chart (or lack thereof at WR) balanced the scales. And then Weeks 1 and 2 happened. Metcalf might be the WR1, but he only holds the role by a three-target margin. Jaylen Warren has more receiving yards (108 to 103). As OC Arthur Smith continues to spread out the offense, Metcalf might be more of a low-end WR2 than the top-tier option we valued him at over the summer.

I’m willing to chalk Kayshon Boutte’s downward spike in opportunities to game script. Drake Maye looked to Rhamondre Stevenson (5 targets) and Austin Hooper (3) more often relative to Week 1. Mack Hollins vultured a passing TD on one of his two targets, and Maye ran in another. The offense is still testing out what works best for the sophomore passer, but I’ll be looking to see if the pass attempts start to condense around Boutte (and a few others) against the Steelers.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Washington Commanders

I like Ashton Jeanty, but I’m worried about his situation. On the one hand, the rookie RB has maintained a stranglehold on the backfield carries with 86.4% and 84.6% shares in both starts. He’s even mixed in six targets to go with his ground game. But the Raiders’ offensive line is a concern. Vegas RBs are averaging -0.03 adjusted yards before contact per rush. And against the Commanders’ defensive front (ranked second in run stop win rate), Jeanty has another tough day ahead of him.

Everyone will be watching the Commanders’ backfield on Sunday. The loss of Austin Ekeler opens up additional touches for Jacory Croskey-Merritt. But Jeremy McNichols mixed in for a 16.0% share of the attempts in Week 1. And Chris Rodriguez shouldn’t be a healthy scratch moving forward. Based on the backfield split, we’ll know how to assess each RB for fantasy in the coming weeks.

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles

After Week 2, HC Sean McVay stated his desire for a 65-35 split between Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. If he’s referring to their snap rates, you won’t hear any pushback from me. Corum played on 31.0% of the snaps last Sunday. However, Williams hoarded 74.0% of the carries. He even got two targets. It’s been clear who deserves the most touches between the two RBs. However, if Corum wants to let Williams take a break for a snap or two, I’ll allow it.

I understood A.J. Brown’s dud in Week 1. A second no-show against a Chiefs’ defense that let Quentin Johnston dunk on them the week before was a surprise. Couple Brown’s lacking production with Jalen Hurts averaging the fourth-fewest air yards per attempt (6.2), and it’s hard to see the situation improving. The Eagles’ WR1 just saw the Rams’ defense during their playoff run and only tacked 14 yards onto his 2024 total. Granted, there was snowfall during the game, but Hurts’ penchant for scrambling under pressure should lower our expectations even more for Week 3.

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers

I need to know if Troy Franklin is real. Not like in the physical sense, but his value to the passing game. Franklin jumped to a 30.0% target rate after splitting the "pass-catcher 2" role with Tyler Badie in Week 1. Plus, the second-year receiver’s gain came at the expense of Courtland Sutton (just four targets). How HC Sean Payton deploys Franklin, and his respective share of the attempts, will help us determine how to value him moving forward.

If you drafted Omarion Hampton, these last two weeks have been tough. Hampton had the backfield (mostly) to himself in Week 1. He out-touched Najee Harris 15 to 1. That split quickly flipped to 50-50 against the Raiders last week. Even worse, Hampton couldn’t find any running lanes. Harris’ 50.0% success rate led the Chargers. If we’re seeing even less volume for Hampton, a tough matchup against the Broncos’ defense shouldn’t inspire any confidence.

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks

Seattle’s defense has only allowed 52.5 passing yards per game to outside receivers. Through two games, Chris Olave has played a career-high 39.6% of his snaps from the slot. At the same time, his receiving aDOT is at a career-low of 9.8 yards, and Spencer Rattler has targeted Olave the most of any New Orleans’ WR from the slot. Any other season, I’d shy away from any receiver matching Olave’s archetype, but with HC Kellen Moore’s play design, I can see a path for the former Buckeye to stay in the Top 24 ranks for Week 3.

I recognized that Kenneth Walker III was back during last Sunday’s game. Sure, the touches leaned toward Zach Charbonnet (15 to 13). But Walker’s 30.8% forced missed tackle rate was reminiscent of his 39.8% mark from '24. Creating explosive plays on over one of every four touches was a familiar sight. The Saints have surrendered the 10th-most PPR points to opposing RBs. With Walker’s offseason foot injury behind him, he’s back in the top 24 conversation moving forward.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

Marvin Harrison Jr.’s deployment continues to trend in the right direction. But I want to see it one more time. His slot rate ticked up to 29.5% of his snaps after running 22.2% of his routes from the interior in Week 1. Even more critical was Harrison’s aDOT drop. He averaged a mere 5.4 air yards per attempt. His previous low was 7.0 air yards (2024, Week 10). A 2-27-0 box score doesn’t help fantasy managers, but more high-percentage targets will get him back in our good graces.

I’ll give credit where it’s due. Mac Jones looked functional in his first start in relief of Brock Purdy. Of course, having Christian McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall on the opposite end of your throws makes the job easier. However, Jones finishing above the league average in EPA per dropback (0.12, 15th) gives the 49ers’ skill players stability until Purdy returns.

Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears

Javonte Williams just needed a change of scenery. Not only has he maintained a 78.6% share of Dallas’ RB carries, but he’s kept the offense on schedule. Of the 21 RBs with a rushing share over 50.0%, Williams has top-10 marks in success rate and adjusted yards after contact per attempt. With the Bears’ run defense ailing, Williams has the runway for another big performance.

Rome Odunze is Chicago’s WR1. Not DJ Moore. Odunze has a nine-target lead over the veteran receiver with a near double-digit gap in air yard share (42.2% to 21.9%). Going up against a Dallas defense that gave up over 15.0 air yards per target to Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson just a week ago should only make fantasy managers happier they drafted Odunze. While Caleb Williams’ operation of the offense will be everyone’s focus, I’ll be watching No. 15.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Giants

Patrick Mahomes led Kansas City in rushing in Week 2. Meanwhile, Isiah Pacheco still had to battle 30-year-old Kareem Hunt for 53.0% of the RB attempts. For a rusher with an early to mid-round ADP, Pacheco doesn’t have a clear role in the backfield. Pacheco’s averaging 2.5 targets per game to Hunt’s 2.0. The vet has been the preferred option in short-yardage situations. Facing the Giants might be the cure for an RB like Pacheco. But another poor performance should have everyone panicking.

Spot the outlier from this set of numbers: 6.1, 5.5, 5.1 and 10.7. Hopefully, the one with three digits stuck out. Anyway, those values are Wan’Dale Robinson’s receiving aDOT by season. Admittedly, posting back-to-back games with 25.0% of the targets should overshadow any concerns about how far he’s running between catches. Especially when Kansas City has given up the fourth-most receiving yards from the slot. However, if we’re looking for an impact from our FLEX spot, Robinson will need to continue to outpace his past usage in what should be another high-scoring game for the Giants.

Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens

If not for a touchdown, we’d be having different conversations about Jameson Williams this week. His five targets in Week 1 were understandable; the offense couldn’t function against the Packers. However, everyone bounced back in their revenge matchup against former OC Ben Johnson. And yet, Williams sat at a 14.3% target rate. Rookie Isaac TeSlaa even cosplayed as Williams on a highlight-reel TD catch. We can’t expect him to generate explosives every week. But an increased workload should be on the table, given his offseason ADP.

I’m going to give Mark Andrews one more week. I’m probably being stubborn. The signs to drop him are there. Zay Flowers has ascended into the top 12 with a 42.6% target share through two games. Flowers’ 50.6% air yard share leaves little for the rest of the crew. And Lamar Jackson’s options have increased. DeAndre Hopkins is catching a touchdown per week (while Andrews gets one punched out). We’re even seeing throws to Tylan Wallace and Devontez Walker. The added branches to Jackson’s passing tree make the prospects of a turnaround for Andrews harder to see. All we can hope for is a high-scoring matchup against the Lions.

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