Fantasy Basketball Offseason Winners & Losers: Biggest risers, fallers as free agency dust settles

This NBA offseason has been chaotic, with the new collective bargaining agreement driving some hard business decisions across the league. Kevin Durant joining the Houston Rockets and Damian Lillard getting waived are just the tip of the iceberg.

As free agency continues, the ripple effects are clear — who’s rising, who’s falling in fantasy basketball?

Let’s break it down before we get a closer look at the rookies and early-career players at the Las Vegas Summer League, beginning on Thursday.

📈 Fantasy offseason Winners

Desmond Bane's departure and injuries raise Ja Morant's stock

The Grizzlies traded Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic, and an untimely toe injury to Jaren Jackson Jr. boosts the value for Morant ahead of next season. Given his injury profile, he remains a boom-or-bust pick in the early rounds of drafts. Newly signed F/C Santi Aldama is another winner in the wake of JJJ's injury.

Hello, Brooklyn, meet your newest chucker: Michael Porter Jr.

I'm probably in the minority because leaving Nikola Jokić objectively sucks. Still, MPJ has a sizable opportunity to become the top option in Brooklyn, especially with Cam Thomas' extension in limbo. Porter finished 75th in per-game value last season and drafting him in the top 80-90 range is a reasonable expectation in 2025-26.

Second-year center Donovan Clingan no longer clinging to bench

Buying out Deandre Ayton was expensive but necessary to get Clingan, the seventh pick of the 2024 NBA Draft, the chance to play a larger role with a budding Blazer squad. There's serious double-double potential with a high volume of blocks. He's a big man who is moving up my draft board quickly.

John Collins escaping an annual tank to join a contender

After playing in just 40 games for the Jazz last season, Collins found a new home that should be more lucrative for his fantasy value. He's coming off a campaign where he shot 53/40/85, so when motivated, Collins puts up efficient numbers. Kawhi Leonard's availability is always a question mark, leaving Collins in a favorable position to make an impact with the starting unit as a scorer, rebounder and stock aggregator.

Jay Huff is a key player to watch for late in drafts

In a surprising move, the Pacers did not retain Myles Turner, leaving a significant hole in Indy's frontcourt. Huff could emerge as a late-round sleeper across formats because of his fanasy-friendly skill set. He's got hops, shoots 40% from deep and blocks 2.7 shots per 36 minutes. Huff's got early-season sleeper written all over him.

Honorable mentions: Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green and D'Angelo Russell.

📉 Fantasy Offseason Losers

Timberwolves' offseason spending spree impacting 4-time DPOTY Rudy Gobert

There's no threat to Rudy losing his starting gig. However, Naz Reid and Julius Randle inking new deals make it more challenging for him to live up to his projected ADP. Gone are the days of Gobert being a top-50 option in fantasy basketball. He'll be more of a sixth-to-seventh-round option since he can accumulate low-end double-doubles.

Hawks finally building around Trae Young, but what does it mean for Onyeka Okongwu?

Okongwu finished as a top-60 fantasy asset in 9-cat leagues after taking over the starting center spot in January. Unfortunately for Okongwu, the Hawks acquired Kristaps Porziņģis. Not ideal.

Sorry, Clint Capela, the Rockets are stockpiling centers

Capela's minutes dipped for the sixth consecutive season, leading to his lowest scoring output in a decade and lowest rebounding numbers since the 2016-17 season. His block rate is trending south, too, and his fantasy value hinges primarily on being a consistent double-double guy who blocks shots. Moving to a new team behind ascending All-Star Alperen Şengün and possibly Steven Adams (Adams is signed for more money), Capela's outlook looks bleak and likely won't be fantasy relevant, barring a trade or injury.

Rockets' went star hunting, but where does Tari Eason fit?

The arrival of Kevin Durant and Dorian Finney-Smith isn't a good look for Eason's standing in 9-cat formats. Eason's been excellent on a per-minute basis throughout his young career, but last year's effort saw him leap to sixth-round value. The subtraction of Dillon Brooks (via the Suns trade) seemed to open the door for another breakout-like campaign. That's unfortunately going to be put on ice with KD in the building, DFS entering the rotation and Jabari Smith Jr. signing a lucrative extension this summer. I think Eason will be a productive member of the rotation, but I'm concerned about sustaining at least 25 minutes per night.

Brook Lopez moves closer to Disneyland — and it's not ideal for fantasy purposes

Mr. Splash Mountain's tenure in Milwaukee is over and it looks like a trip to the bench is next for the 37-year-old center as he decided to join the Clippers via free agency. Lopez has been a reserve in a mere 40 of his 1,105 career NBA games. Either way, a move to the pine means fewer minutes and less fantasy production. Unless you need blocks, Lopez is no longer draftable playing behind Ivica Zubac.

Honorable mentions: CJ McCollum, Davion Mitchell, Pelicans' frontcourt (Yves Missi, Derik Queen and Kevon Looney = a mess)