Everyone Hates This Bill. Dan Osborn Could Make Republicans Pay for It.

Opinion|Everyone Hates This Bill. Dan Osborn Could Make Republicans Pay for It.

It’s hard to think of a major piece of legislation more hated by more people than the monstrous bill Republicans passed last week. It is, of course, almost universally reviled by Democrats, but there’s also opposition to it in every part of the Republican coalition. Susan Collins, perhaps the most moderate Republican senator, and Rand Paul, one of the most conservative, both voted against it. Elon Musk called it “insane” and threatened to form a new political party over it. Senator Lisa Murkowski tried to distance herself from it immediately after casting the craven vote that put it over the top.

In a June Quinnipiac poll, only 29 percent of respondents, including a relatively anemic 67 percent of Republicans, approved of the bill, which makes deep cuts to Medicaid and food stamps while adding trillions of dollars to the national debt. As Republican leaders twisted arms in the House to get it over the finish line, Steve Bannon, a critic of parts of the bill, warned about the implications for the midterms if “feckless” Republicans didn’t find a way to defend it.

Had Dan Osborn won his independent Senate campaign in Nebraska last year, it’s possible the bill never would have passed. Now, as he starts a new independent run for the Senate, he thinks some Republicans have buyer’s remorse. “They were sold a bill of goods that if you work hard in this country, your government is going to be there, to have a level playing field for you to get ahead,” Osborn, who is announcing his candidacy on Tuesday, told me. “But now we’re seeing tax cuts for the billionaires at the expense of workers, people that are struggling to get by.”

A big question — and not just in Nebraska — is whether the pain caused by this bill will be enough to shake partisan loyalties. Democrats are favored to win the House next year, but the party faces a brutal Senate map. It’s defending seats in purple states like Georgia and Michigan and can’t flip the chamber without upsets in some states that are bright red.

The bill, however, could make Republicans’ position a little weaker. In May, Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa responded to a constituent frightened about the deadly consequences of Medicaid cuts with a sarcastic, “Well, we all are going to die.” Her comments helped push J.D. Scholten, a popular Democratic state representative and professional baseball player, to challenge her. The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, which had rated the seat “safe Republican,” now says it’s only “likely Republican.”

And last week, after Donald Trump drove Senator Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, to announce retirement plans over Tillis’s opposition to the tax bill, The Wall Street Journal’s conservative editorial board proclaimed, “Trump Puts the Senate in Play in 2026.”