Everton at Liverpool: Opposition Analysis | Can the Blues Turn the Tables at Anfield?

The Blues maintained their strong start to the new campaign at the weekend, with a 0-0 home draw against Aston Villa. Everton’s current unbeaten streak stands at four games, having brushed aside lower league opposition Mansfield Town in the EFL Cup, and with Premier League victories over Brighton & Hove Albion and Wolverhampton Wanderers having banished memories of a poor opening weekend performance - and result - away at Leeds United.

The Toffees, now sitting in sixth spot in the table, should really be in an even higher position, given how much they dominated the Midlanders at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Unai Emery’s side, still without a goal, were surprisingly devoid of threat, and showed little attacking ambition. Presented with a golden opportunity for the hosts to pick up a rare win against Villa, the chance was squandered by some poor finishing and a hesitancy to use what was an unusually stacked Everton bench.

The team is on the road for the next two outings, with a quick return visit to Molineux, to face Wolves again, in an EFL Cup third round tie on Tuesday evening, but first up they must travel to Anfield for Saturday’s early kickoff. The Reds sit top of the table, having earned maximum points so far.

Liverpool hit the ground running last season, losing just once across all competitions prior to an EFL Cup Semi-Final first-leg defeat to Tottenham Hotspur in January. With Manchester City suffering a poor campaign and Arsenal losing key players to injury - along with lacking a true centre forward - the Reds romped home to a comfortable league title success. A ten-point winning margin made the race seem slightly more competitive than it was, given Liverpool failed to win any of their last four league games as they eased off down the stretch. Despite appearing invincible most of the way, a Champions League exit to eventual winners PSG in the Round of 16, along with defeat by Newcastle United in the EFL Cup Final, took a little of the shine off a successful season.

The club had gone with Jürgen Klopp’s unchanged team, in his successor Arne Slot’s first term in charge, spending little, but that changed last summer. Liverpool immediately signed Bournemouth left back Milos Kerkez (€47m), along with Bayer Leverkusen pair Jeremie Frimpong (€40m) and - for a club record €125m - playmaker Florian Wirtz. Centre forward Hugo Ekitiké (€95m, Eintracht Frankfurt) and 18-year-old Parma centre half Giovanni Leoni (€31m) were added, but the wooing of Magpies forward Alexander Isak and Crystal Palace defender Marc Guéhi dominated the headlines. An acrimonious pursuit for the former ended on deadline day, for an eye-watering €145m, but the Eagles captain eluded the Reds.

With a staggering €485m spent on reinforcements, the club recouped significant sums for a number of departing players. Winger Luis Díaz went to Bayern Munich for €70m, defender Jarrell Quansah to Leverkusen (€35m) and flop striker Darwin Núñez to the limbo that is the Saudi league for €53m. Everton right wing target Ben Doak was signed by the Cherries (€23m), goalkeeper Caoimhín Kelleher by Brentford (€15m) and England under-21 midfielder Tyler Morton was sold to Lyon (€10m). Harvey Elliot’s loan to Villa will be made permanent next summer for €41m, but a key departure was that of Trent Alexander-Arnold, signed by Real Madrid for a knockdown €10m fee. All told, the club spent a net €265m over the window.

The Reds have opened the campaign effectively, though they’ve had to rely on late winning goals on each occasion. They needed to score in the 100th and 95th minute respectively - against Newcastle and Burnley - both of whom had been reduced to ten men beforehand. A dull match with Arsenal was only settled in the 83rd and twice at Anfield, Liverpool have led by two goals - against Bournemouth in the season opener, and on Wednesday, Atlético Madrid in the Champions League - only to be pegged back and forced to rally for the win.

As he did last term, Slot will continue to play his favoured 4-2-3-1 formation, which is also used by the visitors. Unlike Klopp, who brought gegenpressing with him from Dortmund, the Dutchman plays a more measured, possession style, although one which is very much about dominating the opponent in their own half. In general, it’s more measured, but Liverpool push their defensive line up high and will look to exert pressure on any team attempting to play out from the back. The shift in system from the German to Slot has not been a difficult one for the established players to adapt to.

The hosts lead the league in possession (64.9%) and are joint fourth in passing accuracy (84.7%). Only 8.7% of Liverpool’s passes are played long — which is to be expected from a side which spends most of the game in the middle and opposition third of the pitch. Their attack is balanced, generating 15 shots per 90 minutes, producing nine goals from an xG of 6.0. Two goals from counter-attacking situations suggests a side blessed with pace, and able to take advantage in transition. Liverpool are only allowing 8.5 efforts on goal per 90, and have shipped four goals from an xGA of 3.3 — two from set-pieces and two from counters.

Alisson, one of the world’s best goalkeepers, has an unusually low save percentage of 42.9, though this is a statistical anomaly based on limited data. A centre back pairing of Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konaté are a match for most, though the former is not quite what he was, and the latter has been unconvincing. Kerkez is first choice over Andy Robertson at left back, but has started shakily, whilst on the right, Frimpong has been disrupted by injury, as has Conor Bradley, requiring midfielder Dominic Szoboszlai to fill in. The Dutchman played almost an hour midweek, so may well be preferred at the weekend.

In midfield, Alexis Mac Allister will likely partner Ryan Gravenberch, especially if Szoboszlai is deployed at right back. All were key performers last season, though with the arrival of Wirtz, who plays as a traditional number ten, one could lose out. If Frimpong plays, then that is likely to be the Argentine, who missed much of preseason with injury, and doesn’t look fully fit yet. Wirtz, who has yet to provide a goal contribution, has received criticism from some quarters, based on his huge price tag, but leads the side in both key passes and in SCA (Shot-Creating Actions), with 2.16 and 4.85 per 90, respectively.

The hosts’ attack is led by star man Mohamed Salah, who provided an astonishing 57 goal contributions across all competitions last term, in 52 appearances. The right-sided forward, now 33, shows no sign of slowing down, but has not quite looked his imperious self as yet — although he did score and assist against Atlético midweek. Cody Gakpo will line up on the opposite flank, but Slot has a choice between two expensive strikers. Isak started against Atlético, lasting 58 minutes, but is short of match fitness, having gone on strike over the summer to force a move to Liverpool. Ekitiké has started well since his move, and will likely get the call.

The Blues have a long, miserable record of impotence at Anfield, broken only by a single solitary win since 1999 — during the lockdown-blighted season. Still, the team is in a positive frame of mind under David Moyes and, although Liverpool are a powerful side, full of high-calibre players, they’ve not yet looked as dominant as last term. Despite the change of manager, with Klopp’s long tenure coming to an end, the highly-competitive side that he’d forged remained intact, providing a hugely stable platform for Slot to take advantage of. This season, there’s been a major rebuild, with long-term incumbents replaced at both fullback spots, along with centre forward and in the primary playmaking role. It’s going to take time for the team to rediscover its cohesion.

Everton have also rebuilt over the summer, though predominantly in forward areas, with the defence and midfield largely unchanged. Unlike Liverpool, who’ve added a number of young starting players, the Toffees have so far only integrated two into the first eleven and - in Jack Grealish and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall - they are experienced operators; accordingly, any disruption has been minimal. The shift of Iliman Ndiaye to the right, in order to accommodate Grealish, has been relatively seamless, with the Senegalese having scored twice already this season. The only adjustments Moyes has had to make is in coping with the continued injury absence of Jarrad Branthwaite, along with Vitaly Mykolenko, who is again a doubt.

Having to shift James Garner to cover for the Ukrainian at left back has weakened Everton’s midfield, with Tim Iroegbunam an inadequate replacement. The 22-year-old does not read the game well enough to play a defensive role, and lacks the attacking capabilities to play higher up. Should Garner be forced out of midfield again, then it’s possible that Merlin Röhl could be handed a full debut. If not, then Dewsbury-Hall may drop deeper, with Carlos Alcaraz brought in to play as the most advanced of a midfield three — though this appears improbable. Moyes does have options, but must not be reticent in using them — as was the case at the weekend, with an attacking bench going unused.

Moyes had four attacking substitutes available, in Alcaraz, Tyler Dibling, Dwight McNeil and Thierno Barry, yet used only the latter, in what was a like-for-like change for the misfiring Beto. That is not good enough. Depth only means something if it’s utilized. Liverpool have ample options with which to change the game, if required, and Everton must match them. It will almost be as bad as the Blues being blown away at Anfield, if they are still in the game as it enters its final quarter, only to be dispatched as the starters tire, fade and are not replaced. I fear that this is the likely scenario. I expect Everton to be competitive much of the way, but for the hosts to turn up the tempo late on, in sealing the expected win.

Score: Liverpool 3-1 Everton

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