Eastern Pacific tropical rainstorm may rapidly strengthen, threaten Mexico

The eastern Pacific continues its tropical tear with already the fourth tropical storm of the season in the books and the fifth on the way. The latest tropical rainstorm has the potential to rapidly intensify and may threaten the coast of Mexico as a potent hurricane at landfall.

Close on the heels of Dalila, a poorly organized tropical rainstorm just off the coast of Mexico is forecast by AccuWeather meteorologists to become the next tropical depression and tropical storm of the 2025 eastern Pacific hurricane season.

With four tropical storms and one hurricane already history for the basin, this season is well ahead of the historical average pace. Typically, the fourth tropical storm does not form until mid-July, and the average date for the first hurricane is not until June 26. Barbara briefly strengthened to a hurricane back on Sunday, June 8.

"We expect the latest tropical rainstorm off the southern coast of Mexico and the western coast of Central America to slowly drift north-northwestward and gradually organize into midweek," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, "Sometime on Tuesday or Wednesday, we should have a tropical depression or perhaps Tropical Storm Erick."

That official call is made by the National Hurricane Center and will be based on wind and pressure data observations.

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"There is a chance that if this tropical rainstorm can organize quickly enough, it could then rapidly strengthen from a tropical storm to a powerful hurricane," DaSilva said, "That rapid intensification process could occur just hours prior to making landfall along the southwestern coast of Mexico sometime late Wednesday night to Thursday morning."

Factoring in the possibilities of intensity, track, topography and population, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes with the current rainstorm is a 1.

Barbara peaked last week as an entry-level Category 1 hurricane while well offshore with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. This new storm could easily eclipse that intensity as it approaches the coast and populated areas.

How much rain and wind occur to the north and east of the center will depend on the amount of strengthening prior to landfall later this week. Both heavy rain and gusty winds will reach Mexico in advance of the center of the storm.

Enough rain is likely to fall in parts of southern and southwestern Mexico along the coast and over the interior mountains to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Strong winds will buffet the coast generating large swells, big waves, overwash on the beaches and shoreline and dangerous rip currents in the surf zone.

AccuWeather meteorologists expect 14-18 tropical storms for the eastern Pacific season with seven to 10 to become hurricanes. Of these, from three to six will bring direct impacts to Mexico and Central America.

In the wake of the fifth tropical storm this week, there may be a brief lull in activity over the eastern Pacific.

Tropical Atlantic continues to sleep

Meanwhile, the tropical Atlantic basin continues to struggle with vast areas of dry air, dust and disruptive winds-all of which are not uncommon tropical development deterrents early in the season.

"While the chances have become very small, we continue to watch the area close in to land in the southwestern Gulf and the western Caribbean for tropical development late in June," DaSilva said.

There have been some showers and thunderstorms in this area in recent days, but no organization has occurred. "Any tropical rainstorm or depression that were to form in the area would likely not spend much time over warm water and, hence, its lifespan would be brief," DaSilva said.

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