Despite the odds, Illinois beating Indiana would NOT be an upset

On Saturday, the No. 9 Illini face their toughest test of this young season in Bloomington, Indiana.

They will have to contend with a game No. 19 Hoosiers squad looking to prove that their conspicuous cupcake consumption does not define the level of competition they can conquer.

The fan bases are smack-talking as if it’s basketball season.

The coaches are saying all the right things. And rightfully so. It’s not hot air for these coaches in this game to acknowledge they are playing against quality opponents.

Not your mother’s Hoosiers vs. not your mother’s Illini.

This game matters. And the home team is a four-point favorite.

But make no mistake about it. If Bret Bielema and the Illini can escape Indiana with a win, this will not be an upset.

It will simply be a reminder of what programs like Illinois should do in seasons like this.

By the numbers, this Illini squad is more prepared for a foe like this than in recent memory.

Illinois is playing this season with 76% of its overall production from last season returning. That ranks third nationwide. This includes 16 starters from last year’s squad that won 10 games in the shadows of a disappointing 2023 campaign.

The Hoosiers, meanwhile, return 61% of the productivity from their extraordinarily accomplished 2024 squad that made the College Football Playoff. That puts them 44th nationally.

Yes, Curt Cignetti brought a lot of his players with him from Harrisonburg. And yes, they capitalized on an easy schedule to achieve the unthinkable in his first season.

And yes, Cignetti is a sentient Primanti Brothers fish sandwich with a gold chain. But do not let the flashy, loud persona fool you. He is a serious coach. He has a lifetime record of 133-37 as a head coach. He could approach 100(!) games over .500 with another good season in 2025.

So what does Cignetti’s history have to do with Indiana’s murky favorite status?

Illinois won at Nebraska last year against alleged wunderkind Dylan Raiola. Nebraska was similarly ranked (#22) when it faced the Illini.

Raiola may be more hyped than Indiana signal-caller Fernando Mendoza. But Mendoza is a far more accomplished college quarterback.

Illinois still won.

Matt Rhule, like Cignetti, was in his second season at the helm of the ranked host squad.

Illinois still won.

And no, that one win does not mean Illinois will conquer again in Bloomington.

Illinois going to Camp Randall in 2022, and beating the coach out of the Badgers alone does not mean Illinois will win.

The 2021 9OT win against a top-10 Penn State team does not mean Bielema will definitely pull another ranked roadkill this weekend.

But this program has evolved to the point where wins like these should no longer be seen as surprising.

They are par for the course for a program on a sharp incline.

The likely absence of Xavier Scott will loom large. There is no denying that.

But Illinois has a history of winning tough road games (including just two weeks ago in the shadow of Kryzewskiville.

Teams with playoff ambitions do not win all of these games. However, those with a track record of doing so do not shy away from these challenges.

Yes, this is what a big game in bloody September feels like. Take it in.

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