Daily MLB Home Run Prop, Tuesday 6/17

Everyone knows fans dig the longball — so every day I post my favorite Home Run calls for a fun, low-risk approach to baseball betting. Make sure to bookmark our Athlon Sports Betting tab to be first on who's going yard today.

Homers continue trending downward leaguewide, so finding the perfect spot's more important than ever...

Hat tip to Hunter Goodman for getting us to the window (+370) early yesterday. LET'S GO!

START TIME: 7:07 pm EST, Rogers Centre

At this point in the season, we've established our basic foundation for sniffing out home runs.  Identify the pitchers working up in the zone with limited stuff against hitters that lift and pull in above-average contextual environments.

Get out the marker and check every box above for Arizona's 26-year-old RHP Brandon Pfaadt, who's only holding down a rotation spot right now due to injuries. Lacking general strikeout stuff (17.7% K, 9.3% SwStrk, 24.9% CSW), especially on the featured four-seam/sinker combo's led to tons of zone contact (90.4% Zone-Contact). 

Pfaadt's not fooling anyone, secondaries included — an unbelievable +80% of his entire arsenal has a +.520 xSLG. That's crazy. He's also traveled especially poorly all season, giving up 11 of his 14 dong-dongs away from home to top off a road 6.94 ERA, 1.43 WHIP this season. Yikes. 

So many Jays are hitting right now, choosing just one homer proved challenging. I wound up settling on my guy George Springer, a large part of Toronto's recent success. The 35-year-young slugger's mashing RHP all month, batting .308 with a .976 OPS with all the sexy underpinning stats to boot — +79% Contact, +51% Flyball, +41% Hard Hit, +13% Barrel, .359 xwOBA, 2 HR. Love it.

Fingers crossed for a first inning fastball...

LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:

Who's coming with me for a GEORGE SPRINGER HOME RUN (+470) on Fanduel?

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