Crisis in the copper chain: innovation, geopolitics and Australia’s role

Scarlett Evans

Mon, Jul 7, 2025, 9:25 AM 9 min read

As demand for clean energy tech rises, the global copper market is facing a supply-demand gap that analysts warn could be near impossible to close if production remains at its current levels.

Adding to the market volatility are US president Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs, and his executive order to fast-track US exploration and mining of critical minerals, including copper, in international waters.

In the face of supply chain uncertainty, countries are prioritising sovereign access to copper. This means targeting new or previously inaccessible deposits, often deeper and more remote than previously seen, while innovators rush to develop technology that could make lower-grade ore economically viable.

While Australia is by no means the biggest copper producer (ranking eighth globally in 2024), it is home to the world’s second largest copper reserves, making it a key player in any long-term production strategy.

With questions over how nations will meet copper demand without triggering further instability, we look at the projects working to keep Australia’s supply afloat in an uncertain time.

Currently, copper demand sits at around 25 million tonnes (mt) per year. However, estimates suggest that the market trajectory is pushing towards a demand of 50mt by 2050.

Ollie Brown, an economist at GlobalData, told Mining Technology that this demand, similar to other critical minerals, is primarily driven by electric vehicles, grid renovations and renewable energy initiatives.

Amid growing demand, he says the global copper market is defined by “lagging supply”, while Trump’s threatened tariffs from the beginning of this year are “rattling global prices.”

While Trump has not set a levy against copper specifically, he has made it clear that he wants to cut back on imports and increase domestic production.

In February 2025, he commissioned the US Department of Commerce to investigate potential national security risks of copper imports ─ the first step towards potentially curbing these goods.

While the tariffs and their impacts remain conjecture at this stage, Nicolas Psaroudis, APAC economist at GlobalData, told Mining Technology the threat of restrictions contribute to uncertainty and price volatility.

“Internationally, export restrictions could disrupt global copper supply chains,” he explains. “A sudden drop in supply could tighten global scrap availability, drive up international prices, and strain smelters already facing concentrate shortages.”

If nothing else, the situation has proven an unwelcome reminder of the fact that global mineral supply chains remain vulnerable to the whims of trade tensions and has added to calls to bolster domestic production.