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Commanders vs. Packers, Week 2: Best bets, player prop wagers for Thursday Night Football

Our Week 2 Thursday Night Football matchup features a clash between two teams on the rise in the Washington Commanders and the Green Bay Packers.

Every Week 1 “island game” was fantastic. To begin Week 1, we got two divisional clashes, with the underdog Dallas Cowboys covering the spread against the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Los Angeles Chargers outright upsetting the Kansas City Chiefs. To end Week 1, we saw a pair of mind-boggling comebacks, as the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings navigated improbable wins against the Baltimore Ravens and the Chicago Bears, respectively. Now two 1-0 teams who both made the playoffs last year take Lambeau Field, perhaps the most hallowed football grounds in the world.

Here is a breakdown of both the betting market and the accompanying football, and the best way to bet the spread, total, and a player prop.

The Spread: Green Bay Packers -3.5 (-105) vs. Washington Commanders

After the Week 2 market opened, the BetMGM price for this game was Packers -3 (-115). The line took movement all the way out to -3.5 (-120) before it started to move back the other direction. It has settled in the middle here with a current price at Packers -3.5 (-105). The line movement makes complete sense, in my opinion. In the NFL, the moves on and off of the 3 are by far the most valuable because of the frequency of games landing on that key number. Over the last three seasons, the sample size I most rely on, slightly more than 15% of games, has landed on this number. That percentage only increases when isolating the games priced between -2.5 and +3.5.

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From a line value perspective this is worth memorizing: the move both onto and off of the 3 is worth 22 cents on the dollar. It is massively valuable! Evaluating the lines open at Packers -3 (-115) to -3.5 (-105), we can say this line has moved about 12 cents out on the Packers.

That tracks with the Week 1 results. The Packers put together a dominate performance against the Lions, beating a divisional rival and 15-win team just a season ago 27-13. They led wire-to-wire after an opening drive went for a touchdown, and never relinquished their advantage. New star defensive end Micah Parsons had both a sack and a turnover accounted for, as a pressure of his directly led to an interception.

The Commanders also handled their business against the lowly New York Giants. They covered against the spread, held the Giants to the league's lowest point total (six) in Week 1, and had some pop plays by new players Deebo Samuel and Jacory (Bill) Croskey-Merritt. The strength of opponent was so lackluster that it did not generate much buzz, and some pundits point to a bit of mistiming between Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin, who held out throughout preseason before signing his extension right before the start of the season.

The mixed market signals make it relatively tough for me to give out a strong best bet here. I personally bet the Packers at -3 (-115), but at this stage would not recommend chasing it at -3.5 because of the importance of the number. If you like the Packers, consider finding the best money line price you can and betting that, as the money line may still hold late movement and a directional advantage. If you like the Commanders, take the points and the hook on the 3.

The Total: Over/Under 48

This is a repeat total from Week 1's Thursday Night Football game, with a total hovering at 48 points. Purely coincidence, this is also the total points scored in Week 1 combining the Packers' 27 and Commanders' 21 — it’s a fun tangent worth pointing out, but it is not why the total is set here.

This total is the second highest on the Week 2 NFL card because it features two potent offenses with a bevy of threats. The Packers have an MVP candidate at QB in Jordan Love, a strong RB in Josh Jacobs, a deep core of WRs featuring Romeo Doubs, Matthew Golden and Jayden Reed, a pass-catching TE in Tucker Kraft and, perhaps above all, an offensive line that allowed zero sacks in Week 1 to a strong Detroit front four. Likewise, the Commanders have their own MVP candidate at QB in Jayden Daniels, a tandem of RBs with veteran Austin Ekeler and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt, and established WRs in Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel. These multi-faceted offenses can attack defenses in a multitude of ways and are led by strong offensive play callers in Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur and Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.

Despite all of these optimistic reasons for scoring, those factors are priced in and this is a game I am taking the under. The reopen market after Week 1 was a consensus 48.5 and has ticked down to 48 at BetMGM. Thursday Night Football forces less innovating offensive game planning, likely more zone coverage on defense, and, historically, a slightly lower red zone touchdown conversion rate.

Despite the Packers scoring 27 points in Week 1, Love threw only 22 passes compared to 25 team runs. I expect a very similar split. The Commanders' offense told a similar story with Daniels having 30 pass attempts and the team having 32 rushing attempts. Expect both offenses to maintain a very even split, and a game that makes the under worth backing.

Best Bet: Under 48

Player Prop: Austin Ekeler over 22.5 rushing yards (-115)

Three combining forces bring me to back Austin Ekeler on his over rush yards prop. As a continuation from the game total under, I expect a very even split of rushing and passing from both teams in this game. Specific to the Commanders' offense and Packers' defense, Green Bay’s ability to get pressure with the front four (especially with the new addition of Parsons), means the Commanders are more likely to increase the snaps of veteran RB Ekeler because he is a strong pass blocker.

But being a strong pass blocker does not just mean a running back is out there for passing downs and blocking situations; Ekeler will have to be used in the run game more to confuse the opponent, and could get situational passing plays checked into run plays when he is the lone back. Lastly, there's the market read — tracking line history has increased at various sports books from 20.5 to 22.5, indicating the correct direction for this to be an over play.

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