College football betting: Is it time to buy into Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers?

Every week, the Heisman and national title odds boards tell a story. Some names surge on box score brilliance, others climb because their teams keep winning, and a few slip because cracks start to show. The lines react to perception, production and the potential of what's ahead.

This week's board gave us plenty to chew on. Quarterbacks in surprising places are suddenly in the conversation, while traditional powers keep creeping closer to the front. A few big jumps look obvious, others need a reality check, and one team in particular continues to shape how I'm approaching the playoff picture.

The market is buzzing, the hype is building, but the question remains: what's real and what's just noise? Let's dive into the movers.

Biggest moves and notable lines for the Heisman winner

Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana +1100 Last week: +3500

The Hoosiers QB made a big jump this week to the third favorite behind only Oklahoma's John Mateer +750 and Miami's Carson Beck +1100 after Indiana crushed Illinois. On paper, it looks justified. Mendoza has 14 touchdown passes with no interceptions and is completing 76.8% of his passes. That kind of efficiency is what makes oddsmakers move quickly, especially when a quarterback is leading an undefeated team.

But there's a clear asterisk. Three of Indiana's four opponents were ODU, Kennesaw State and Indiana State. Those games don't tell us much.

Illinois was the first real test, and Mendoza delivered, but the sample size is still small. The hype is building because of what could be, not necessarily what already is. With Penn State and Oregon up next, we'll get answers fast.

My take: For me, it's a pass. I don't see Mendoza as the driver here, but rather the offense as a whole has been balanced and efficient. Indiana's defense has been loud, dictating games and giving him short fields, but it looks more like a complete team clicking than one quarterback carrying them.

Haynes King, QB, Georgia Tech +2500 Last week: +5000

The drop shows the market is finally catching up to how valuable he has been for Georgia Tech. Even if it never cashes, holding that 50-to-1 ticket is already a win because you locked it in at the best number.

Josh Hoover, QB, TCU +1800 Last week: +5000

Hoover's odds move is absolutely justified. Through three games he has thrown for 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns with only two interceptions. He's not just padding stats on short throws either, averaging 9.7 yards per attempt with multiple explosive plays. Against SMU, he had the type of breakout performance that moved markets -- 379 yards and five touchdowns -- showing he can carry TCU's offense. Efficiency, production and team success all point to him being a legitimate contender.

The reason his odds aren't even shorter is the context. Hoover hasn't faced a ranked opponent yet, and his numbers have come against defenses that don't strike fear nationally (UNC and ACU). Volume also lags behind other contenders, which leaves less margin for error. Until he delivers a Heisman moment against a stronger schedule, the market is keeping him in the outer tier.

Jayden Maiava, QB, USC +2200 Last week: +3500

Another move that makes sense. Through four games, he has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks, throwing for 1,223 yards, nine touchdowns and zero interceptions while adding three scores on the ground and ranking first in QBR. Plus, his 12.7 yards per attempt highlights the explosiveness of USC's passing game under his command. What separates Maiava is not just one big performance, but steady, week-to-week production tied to efficiency. The narrative: USC is 4-0, and voters love an undefeated quarterback on a playoff contender.

Like Hoover, the reason Maiava's number hasn't shortened further is schedule context. USC's early opponents didn't have elite defenses, and Maiava still needs a true "Heisman moment" against ranked competition. Until then, the market is keeping him just outside the favorites tier.

The biggest moves and notable lines for the national championship odds

Miami +1400 Last week: +2200

The favorites at the top saw no change, but Miami is sitting as the eighth favorite in the title odds. On paper, I get it; they're 4-0 with wins over Notre Dame and Florida, the metrics are strong and the roster looks like it belongs in the contender conversation. But I'm still hesitant. Both of those wins are looking less impressive week by week. Plus, I don't fully trust Carson Beck at the moment. The numbers are solid -- 73% completions, nearly 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns -- but when Florida's defense tightened, he looked human.

And then there's Miami head coach Mario Cristobal. He builds tough teams in the trenches, but his game management always leaves the door open. Against Florida, it was still just 13-7 in the third quarter with penalties piling up and the offense stalling. Against teams like Ohio State or Penn State, that's where games are lost. So the odds drop makes sense, but I'm not sold it changes the ceiling.

Oklahoma +1600 Last week: +2500

The love keeps pouring in on Oklahoma, with odds dropping each week. I don't see a national title team here. The Sooners have handled Michigan and Auburn and the schedule sets up for wins to pile up, but the flaws are hard to ignore: no run game, too many penalties and a turnover margin that leaves no breathing room.

That won't hold up when the competition stiffens.

Tennessee on the road is a real danger spot. The Vols' passing attack can shred a defense if it can't get home with pressure. Facing Alabama in their home is another issue. The Crimson Tide's weakness is against the run, but Oklahoma doesn't have a rushing identity to exploit it. LSU to close is another matchup problem, with a defense built to suffocate a one-dimensional offense. Texas might be a litmus test, but the Longhorns will test OU's balance. This looks more like a 10-win team than a true national title threat.

Betting consideration: Indiana to make the playoff (+150)

My preseason prediction for Indiana was over 8.5 wins. I'm taking it a step further because the path to the playoff is real. One marquee win can swing the race. If Indiana knocks off Oregon or Penn State and finishes 11-1, that almost locks the Hoosiers into the conference title game. Win that and they're in. Even at 11-2, a top-10 resume win keeps them alive.

Normally I'd lean single-game moneyline over a futures ticket, but +150 to make the playoff covers both paths. Indiana is currently projected as about a +4/+4.5 underdog in both games, which translates to +160 to +180 on the moneyline. That means the futures market is basically pricing them to lose both. In reality, they just need to split.

Indiana's profile matches my preseason read: QB stability, balance on offense, an elite defense and a high ceiling under Curt Cignetti. Four weeks in, the Hoosiers have delivered. If they steal one of those two, this +150 number disappears.