Coffee Prices Pressured by Rain in Brazil

Rich Asplund

Tue, Jun 17, 2025, 1:57 PM 4 min read

July arabica coffee (KCN25) Tuesday closed down  -8.10 (-2.35%), and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN25) closed down -42 (-0.96%).

Coffee prices on Tuesday extended Monday's losses, with arabica coffee falling to a 2-1/4 month low.   Recent rainfall in Brazil has eased dryness concerns and is weighing on coffee prices.  On Monday, Somar Meteorologia reported that Brazil's largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 10.6 mm of rain during the week ended June 14, 131% of the historical average for this time of year.

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Coffee prices remain generally weak due to Brazil's ongoing coffee harvest, with arabica coffee falling to a 2-1/4 month low Tuesday and robusta falling to a 10-month low last Friday.  Brazil's Cooxupe coffee co-op announced last Tuesday that its members reported the coffee harvest was 13.7% complete, compared with 13.6% at the same time last year.  Cooxupe is Brazil's largest coffee cooperative and Brazil's largest exporter of coffee.

Meanwhile, Safras & Mercado reported last Friday that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee harvest was 35% complete as of June 11, slightly behind last year's comparable level of 37% but in line with the 5-year average of 35%.  The breakdown showed that 49% of the robusta harvest and 26% of the arabica harvest were complete as of June 11.  Brazil's arabica harvest has been slowed by heavy rain in some areas.

Coffee prices have been under pressure over the past six weeks due to concerns about higher coffee production and ample supplies.  On May 19, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee production will increase by 0.5% year-over-year (y/y) to 65 million bags and that Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to 31 million bags.  Brazil is the world's largest producer of arabica coffee, and Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee.

Robusta coffee prices have underlying support as ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories fell to a 1-month low Tuesday of 5,157 lots.  In a bearish factor for arabica prices, however, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 4-1/2 month high of 892,468 bags on May 27 and were modestly below that high at 859,389 bags as of Tuesday.