Coffee Prices Plummet on an Improved Supply Outlook

Rich Asplund

Wed, Jun 18, 2025, 11:05 AM 4 min read

July arabica coffee (KCN25) today is down  -11.10 (-3.31%), and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN25) is down -301 (-6.97%).

Coffee prices are plummeting today, with arabica falling to a 5-month low and robusta sinking to a 1-year low due to an improved supply outlook with Brazil's ongoing coffee harvest.  Safras & Mercado reported last Friday that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee harvest was 35% complete as of June 11, slightly behind last year's comparable level of 37% but in line with the 5-year average of 35%.  The breakdown showed that 49% of the robusta harvest and 26% of the arabica harvest were complete as of June 11.  Brazil's arabica harvest has been slowed by heavy rain in some areas.

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Meanwhile, Brazil's Cooxupe coffee co-op announced last Tuesday that its members reported the coffee harvest was 13.7% complete, compared with 13.6% at the same time last year.  Cooxupe is Brazil's largest coffee cooperative and Brazil's largest exporter of coffee.

Coffee prices have been under pressure over the past seven weeks due to concerns about higher coffee production and ample supplies.  On May 19, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee production will increase by 0.5% year-over-year (y/y) to 65 million bags and that Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to 31 million bags.  Brazil is the world's largest producer of arabica coffee, and Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee.

Recent rainfall in Brazil has eased dryness concerns and is weighing on coffee prices.  On Monday, Somar Meteorologia reported that Brazil's largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 10.6 mm of rain during the week ended June 14, 131% of the historical average for this time of year.

Robusta coffee prices have underlying support as ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories fell to a 1-month low today of 5,150 lots.  In a bearish factor for arabica prices, however, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 4-1/2 month high of 892,468 bags on May 27 and were modestly below that high at 859,389 bags as of Tuesday.