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Cocoa Prices Jump as Ghana Cuts its Cocoa Production Forecast

Rich Asplund

Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 11:20 AM 4 min read

Cocoa prices today extended this week's rally and posted 1-week highs. The outlook for smaller cocoa supplies from Ghana, the world's second-largest cocoa producer, is pushing prices sharply higher. Ghana's Cocoa Board today cut its 2024/25 cocoa production forecast to 600,000 MT from a December estimate of 617,500.

Cocoa prices have been under pressure over the past couple of weeks, with NY cocoa posting a 2-1/4 month low last Friday and London cocoa posting a 2-1/2 month low. Recent rain in West Africa is expected to benefit the region's cocoa crops and has limited the upside in cocoa prices.

The rebound in current cocoa inventories is also bearish for prices. Since falling to a 21-year low of 1,263,493 bags on January 24, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports have rebounded and climbed to a 9-1/2 month high of 2,363,861 bags last Wednesday.

Signs of smaller cocoa exports are supportive of cocoa prices, following Wednesday's news that Nigerian May cocoa exports fell by -29% y/y to 14,110 MT. Nigeria is the world's fourth-largest exporter of cocoa.

Cocoa prices have support due to concerns about tighter cocoa supplies from the Ivory Coast. Monday's government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.679 MMT of cocoa to ports this marketing year from October 1 to June 22, up +6.9% from last year but down from the much larger +35% increase seen in December. There are reports that heavy rain in the Ivory Coast is keeping cocoa growers off their farms and is disrupting the ongoing mid-crop cocoa harvest.

Late last month, NY cocoa rallied to a 4-3/4 month nearest-futures high on concerns about weather in West Africa. Despite the recent rain in West Africa, drought still covers more than a third of Ghana and the Ivory Coast, according to the African Flood and Drought Monitor.

Cocoa prices also have support due to quality concerns regarding the Ivory Coast's mid-crop cocoa, which is currently being harvested through September. Cocoa processors are complaining about the quality of the crop and have rejected truckloads of Ivory Coast cocoa beans. Processors reported that about 5% to 6% of the mid-crop cocoa in each truckload is of poor quality, compared with 1% during the main crop. According to Rabobank, the poor quality of the Ivory Coast's mid-crop is partly attributed to late-arriving rain in the region, which limited crop growth. The mid-crop is the smaller of the two annual cocoa harvests, which typically starts in April. The average estimate for this year's Ivory Coast mid-crop is 400,000 MT, down -9% from last year's 440,000 MT.

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