Brazil’s Supreme Court Is On Course to Convict Bolsonaro in Coup Plot

Brazil’s Supreme Court on Thursday moved toward convicting former President Jair Bolsonaro of plotting to stage a coup after three of the five justices presiding over his trial said he had conspired to cling to office after losing the 2022 election.

Mr. Bolsonaro has been accused of overseeing a vast conspiracy that prosecutors say included plans to overturn the vote and assassinate the election’s winner, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva before he took office as president.

Mr. Bolsonaro denies planning a coup or plotting to kill his rival, but admits to studying “ways within the Constitution” to remain in office after losing an election he claimed had been stolen from him.

Still, the verdict will not be final until all five justices have voted and the court declares an official verdict, which could come as early as Thursday afternoon. Mr. Bolsonaro could face more than 40 years in prison. His sentencing is expected to take place on Friday.

By Thursday afternoon, three of the five Supreme Court justices had voted in favor of convicting him of “coup d’état” and the “violent abolition” of democracy.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is overseeing the case, opened voting this week with a vote to convict on all charges and a sharp rebuke against claims by Mr. Bolsonaro’s defense that there had never been any conspiracy to hold onto power. “There is no doubt that there was an attempted coup,” he said.

Two other justices, Flávio Dino and Cármen Lúcia Antunes Rocha, agreed and also cast votes to convict.

Just one justice, Luiz Fux, disagreeing sharply with his colleagues, voted to absolve Mr. Bolsonaro of all the charges, arguing that there was no direct evidence linking the former president to the crimes.

Besides Mr. Bolsonaro, seven members of his inner circle are also facing trial, accused of aiding the former president in the coup attempt.

The trial, which began last week, is the final step in a sprawling investigation and court proceedings that have lasted months. In pretrial sessions, the justices have already heard testimony from dozens of people, including Mr. Bolsonaro, other defendants and witnesses.

Mr. Bolsonaro has spent the weeks before the trial under house arrest, watched closely by the police after Justice Moraes deemed him a flight risk.

In Brazil, which endured a brutal military dictatorship from 1964 to 1985, the criminal prosecution of a president and his powerful military allies is seen by many as a victory for democracy.

But as mass protests just days before the justices began casting votes showed, Mr. Bolsonaro’s criminal prosecution has also divided Brazil, with supporters claiming that it was an attempt to push him off the political stage.

Mr. Bolsonaro is ineligible to run in next year’s presidential elections because of a separate ruling by another court. If he is convicted this week, he will be permanently barred from running for office under Brazil’s Constitution.

The trial has also set off a diplomatic crisis between Brazil and the United States, with President Trump trying to force the country’s judiciary to drop the case against Mr. Bolsonaro, his political ally, by imposing 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian goods and applying harsh sanctions on Justice Moraes.

Brazil is bracing for the possibility of more punishing measures from the United States aimed at other members of the Supreme Court and the nation’s financial institutions in response to Mr. Bolsonaro’s expected conviction.

The plot Mr. Bolsonaro is accused of orchestrating also includes sowing unfounded doubts about electoral fraud, recruiting military leaders to help with a coup and planning to assassinate Justice Moraes.

The conspiracy fell apart, prosecutors say, when top military brass refused to go along with the plans. But, in an attempt to provoke a military intervention, Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters stormed government buildings a week after Mr. Lula took office in 2023, in a destructive riot that echoed the attack on the U.S. Capitol two years before.

@Janaina Camelo contributed reporting.