Analysis: Georgia appears vulnerable and Florida positioned to capitalize

ATLANTA — Georgia football coach Kirby Smart can hear the footsteps for the first time in awhile.

If there was ever a chance for the Florida Gators to catch their SEC rival, this could be it after losing four straight and seven of eight in the longstanding series.

The Bulldogs are vulnerable, if not eminently beatable, while the Gators, winners of four straight to end 2024, are on the upswing behind sophomore star quarterback DJ Lagway, one of eight returning starters on offense.

Smart’s squad is young, rebuilding both lines and breaking in a new starting quarterback, redshirt junior Gunner Stockton.

En route to their first three-loss season since 2018, the 2024 Bulldogs failed to execute their hard-nosed brand of football.

Smart’s vaunted defense finished eighth in the SEC after ranking first four of the previous five seasons, and second in 2023 to Alabama. An even larger concern was a run game 15th of 16 conference teams,  with an average of just 124.4 yards, 50 yards fewer than any Georgia team since Smart’s 2016 arrival.

“That’s not Georgia,” ESPN analyst Jordan Rodgers told the Orlando Sentinel on Tuesday.

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Georgia coach Kirby Smart holds the national championship trophy after the Bulldogs defeated Alabama 33-18 in the College Football Playoff title game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Jan. 10, 2022. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images file)

Yet, the Bulldogs still won the SEC Championship game, beating SEC newcomer Texas for the second time in 2024. Georgia followed the performance, however, with 23-10 dud against Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.

Positioned to supplant Nick Saban as the king of SEC coaches and poised to achieve the first to three-peat since Minnesota in 1934-36, Smart enters his 10th season at crossroads with a fledgling group finding its footing.

“Our team is going to be comprised of 54 percent first and second-year players,” Smart told reporters at SEC Media Days on Tuesday. “Very big change for us. Last year was probably one of the most veteran teams I’ve been a part of.

“We’re going to be really young, especially on the offensive and defensive lines.”

The Bulldogs lost four starters on the offensive line and lack their usual depth on the defensive front.

Name, image and likeness has curtailed Smart’s ability to stockpile talent like he did on his 2021 and 2022 national champions.

Consider former All-American defensive tackle Jalen Carter of Apopka didn’t start as a freshman, while linebacker Quay Walker was a reserve until his junior season. Each were future first-round draft picks and key members of a ’21 defense that allowed an average of just 10.2 points.

These days, both might have entered the transfer portal, like edge rusher Damon Wilson II. After starting just two games in 2023-24, the former 5-star prospect left for Missouri. Georgia replaced Wilson, the No. 3 transfer prospect per 247Sports, with Army’s Elo Modozie, who ranked No. 46.

“It’s tougher now with the NIL rules than it was when Saban was recruiting,” Rodgers said. “Then it was all about, where can I compete for national championships, and where can I play and get to the NFL? That was Bama — forever.”

Rather than tap into the transfer market, Smart stuck with Stockton after 2023-24 starter Carson Beck bolted for millions of dollars at Miami, after an elbow injury prevented him from entering the NFL draft. A 22-year-old from rural Rabun County (pop. 17,442) in northeast Georgia, Stockton was destined to be a Bulldog, but waited nearly three seasons for his chance.

He replaced Beck in the SEC title game and did enough during a 22-19 overtime win against Texas. Against Notre Dame, Stockton was solid, finishing 20 of 32 passing for 234 yards and a touchdown, but was sacked four times, while Georgia’s run game generated just 62 yards.

Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton fumbles as he is hit by Notre Dame linebacker Jack Kiser (24) during the first half in the quarterfinals of a College Football Playoff on Jan. 2, 2025, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Matthew Hinton)

Protecting Stockton in 2025 will be key.

The arrival of South Carolina transfer Zachariah Branch and Texas A&M’s Noah Thomas, the fifth- and 10th-rated receivers in the portal, to join senior playmaker Dillon Bell will be major upgrades. A unit that suffered 31 drops last season could now feature the best collection of talent on the perimeter in years.

“He needs to not be Superman,” Rodgers said. “Last year, Carson Beck, at times, tried to be Superman on every throw, forcing things in the windows that weren’t there. When Gunner realizes they’re better around him than they were around Carson last year, it will take some pressure off him.”

The pressure never ceases on Smart, the sport’s highest-paid coach at $13.28 million annually. He is 105-19 in Athens, including an SEC 29-game winning streak. Six of his those losses came in Year 1 and five more in either SEC title games of the CFB Playoffs.

The 49-year-old former Georgia safety has done it all in his sport, while becoming an icon at his alma mater.

Even so, Smart and the Bulldogs are not planning give an inch or take a step back even as some SEC programs, including the Gators, close ground.

“The University of Georgia standard is the standard,” linebacker CJ said. “I wouldn’t say it’s a challenge, it’s an honor. We’re just a hungry team. We got guys that’s young or inexperienced or whatever people might say, but we’re just hungry.”

Edgar Thompson can be reached at egthompson@orlandosentinel.com