Analysis-Freeport-McMoRan poised to gain from Trump's copper tariff against peers with few options

Ernest Scheyder

Fri, Jul 11, 2025, 12:53 PM 4 min read

By Ernest Scheyder

(Reuters) -Freeport-McMoRan could see a $1.6-billion boost to annual profit if President Donald Trump's copper tariff materializes, a benefit driven by the firm's role as the largest U.S. producer with more expansion options than rivals.

Responsible for 60% of U.S. copper output, Phoenix-based Freeport has since the 19th century cultivated U.S. mine projects that have decades of growth potential without the need for fresh permitting.

Other companies have struggled due to the stubborn reality of American mining: It takes years to build a U.S. mine.

Trump announced on Wednesday a 50% tariff on imports of the metal used in construction, electronics, and nearly every part of the economy. It would be the first time Washington has imposed a copper tariff if enacted by Trump's August 1 start date.

The initial announcement on Tuesday, which pushed Freeport stock up 5%, sparked questions about where Trump hopes to procure the metal, given longstanding hurdles to building mines and smelters, and few options outside of Freeport's seven U.S. copper mines.

"The longer-term aim of the Trump administration may be for the U.S. to be fully self-sufficient in copper, but mines take too long to develop for this to be achieved in less than a 10-year time horizon," said Jefferies analyst Chris LaFemina.

The U.S. imports roughly half of its copper needs, mostly from Chile, Canada, and Peru. China is the world's largest smelter and consumer of copper, with global demand poised to jump at least 60% by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency.

Jefferies singled out Freeport as the company expected to benefit most from Trump's tariffs. Controlling four of the five largest U.S. copper mines, Freeport sells all of its U.S. product inside the country, more than any other company.

The copper is sold at U.S. Comex copper prices, which have jumped since Trump first suggested potential tariffs in February, boosting the company's bottom line.

Freeport in April estimated it would reap a profit windfall of at least $800 million annually from higher prices should a copper tariff take effect.

The April estimate was based on U.S. copper prices of $4.84 per pound, a premium of roughly 60 cents per pound to benchmark LME copper prices. The premium is now roughly double, equating to about $1.6 billion in additional annual EBITDA for Freeport, the company told Reuters. It earned $10 billion in EBITDA in 2024.

Freeport declined to comment on the full tariff plan until it can review details.

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