2025 NFL schedule analysis: Projections, odds, players to upgrade and downgrade

It's 2025 NFL schedule release day, which means we are one step closer to the start of the season.

How does this schedule impact the fantasy football landscape? Which players have it the easiest and hardest? Which 14 teams will make the NFL playoffs? How about an early look at the 2026 draft order?

Some housekeeping before diving into this. First, while Week 18 is no longer a part of the schedule in newly created and public ESPN fantasy football leagues, it's still included in reactivated leagues, so it remains a part of this study (it has minimal impact on the results anyway). Next, my strength of schedule evaluation is not based on final 2024 records, which is often what you'll see in this type of column. There has been a ton of roster movement already this offseason and injured players will return to action, so all of that is factored into each team's 2025 prospects. My evaluation of each roster -- not last year's production -- is what I use to generate the easiest and toughest schedules.

The analysis below is your next step in preparing for the 2025 NFL and fantasy football seasons.

Easiest fantasy schedule: Arizona Cardinals

Arizona topping this category is pretty notable, as the Cardinals had the hardest schedule for both quarterbacks and tight ends last season, and had the hardest overall fantasy schedule for most of 2024, prior to it lightening up down the stretch.

This season, Arizona is set up with nine matchups against defenses I have ranked among the worst 10 units in the league (49ers twice, Jaguars, Cowboys, Bengals, Panthers, Saints, Falcons, Titans). The only top-10 projected defense they will face is Houston.

Kyler Murray, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride are already prominent draft day targets, but all four get a boost due to the favorable schedule.

Others with favorable fantasy schedules: Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints.

Toughest fantasy schedule: Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals lead this category and it's not even close. Cincinnati faces one defense projected to finish in the bottom 10 of the league (Jaguars), but has six games against the top six projected defenses (Steelers twice, Vikings, Broncos, Lions, Patriots), as well as two games against a good Ravens defense.

The silver lining here is that, using EPA as a basis, the Cincinnati offense had the league's seventh-hardest slate last season, including the hardest for wide receivers. That didn't stop the likes of Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins from putting up elite numbers.

Others with difficult fantasy schedules: Baltimore Ravens and Green Bay Packers

Positional upgrades and downgrades

Though we don't want to get too caught up in strength of schedule based on the prior season's results, there is some correlation between fantasy points allowed by position and projected fantasy strength of schedule (based on 2025 rosters). The chart below shows each offense's strength of schedule based on what their 2025 opponents allowed last season. For example, based on 2024 results, the Lions are set to face the third-easiest schedule for tight ends but the third hardest for quarterbacks. (Green = easy; red = hard.)

Here are some upgrades and downgrades based solely on this chart, though you'll notice some correlation with the previous analysis:

Upgrades

QB: C.J. Stroud, Kyler Murray, Tyler Shough, Justin Fields
RB: Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara, Kenneth Walker III, James Conner, Christian McCaffrey
WR: Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Tetairoa McMillan
TE: Mark Andrews, Mason Taylor

Downgrades

QB: Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Jared Goff
RB: James Cook, Derrick Henry, RJ Harvey, Kaleb Johnson
WR: Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman
TE: Jake Ferguson, Theo Johnson, Tyler Higbee, Zach Ertz

Easiest overall schedule: San Francisco 49ers (win total: 10.5)

The 49ers are coming off a very disappointing 2024 season and are facing a ton of questions on the defensive side of the ball after substantial offseason departures. The good news is that the offense remains in decent shape and the team will face the league's easiest projected 2025 schedule. The 49ers will face none of the league's top seven Super Bowl favorites (Ravens, Lions, Eagles, Bills, Chiefs, Bengals, Commanders), per ESPN BET odds, and have a substantial number of attractive matchups thanks to the NFC West facing off with the underwhelming NFC South and AFC South divisions. Their unique games are the Giants, Bears and Browns.

Remainder of top 5 easiest schedules: Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks

Toughest overall schedule: Detroit Lions (win total: 10.5)

No surprise here, as the Lions are the defending champions of the once-again super-tough NFC North. In addition to the six games against the Vikings, Packers and improved Bears, the Lions will face off with the NFC East and AFC North divisions. Detroit's trio of unique games is about has hard as you can get: Buccaneers, Chiefs and Rams.

One positive for the Lions is that the rest of the division (and several 1-seed contenders) will also face a tough slate.

Remainder of top 5 hardest schedules: Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants and Green Bay Packers

Projected AFC seeds

All playoff odds provided by ESPN BET..

1. Ravens (-500); 2. Bills (-750); 3. Chiefs (-450); 4. Texans (-155); 5. Broncos (-110); 6. Bengals (-185); 7. Patriots (+155)

The Ravens get a tiny nod over the Bills here, but it's a wide-open race between two stellar franchises that remain in terrific shape on paper, especially offensively. Baltimore has won double-digit games six of the past seven seasons (including at least 12 the past two years), while Buffalo has won at least 11 games six seasons in a row. Perhaps the Chiefs are headed for some regression after so many close wins were followed by a shellacking by the Eagles in February, but it's hard to doubt a franchise that has been to five of the past six Super Bowls, including three in a row. Houston remains the favorite in the South with Stroud entering Year 3 and with one of the league's most loaded defenses. Denver also has a very good defense and the offense could be even better with new tools added for second-year QB Bo Nix. The Bengals have missed the playoffs two years in a row despite having won nine-plus games in four consecutive seasons, but the Burrow-led elite offense should be able to offset a shaky defense this time around. And don't sleep on a Patriots team that's suddenly stacked on defense and has a second-year QB (Drake Maye) and improved coaching (Mike Vrabel). The Steelers, Chargers, Dolphins and perhaps Colts are very much in the conversation here as well.

Projected NFC seeds

1. Lions (-250); 2. Eagles (-450); 3. Buccaneers (-165); 4. Rams (-170); 5. Packers (-125); 6. Commanders (-150); 7. Vikings (+130)

Injuries absolutely decimated the Lions' defense in 2024, which led to a quick playoff exit after a dominant 15-2 regular season. Healthy and still stacked on paper entering 2025, Detroit is primed to contend for the top seed again this season despite tough divisional opposition. The Super Bowl champion Eagles took a hit on defense during free agency, but the offense remains elite. Tampa Bay has found its quarterback in Baker Mayfield and is eyeing its fifth straight division title and sixth straight trip to the postseason. The Rams are the best they've been on paper in years, especially on defense, and we know they're well coached under Sean McVay. The Packers are solid on both sides of the ball and the offense could be even better with improved targets and a fully healthy Jordan Love. Defense is the Commanders' major red flag, but Jayden Daniels appears to be the real deal and can carry this team far. While the Vikings remain elite on defense, a tough schedule combined with a new QB in J.J. McCarthy could lead to a slight step back. Keep an eye on the Cardinals (easy schedule and a stacked defensive line) as an NFC sleeper.

Projected 2026 NFL draft top 5

1. Browns; 2. Saints; 3. Raiders; 4. Titans; 5. Jets

The Browns' defense took a giant step backward last season and the offense is in flux with four quarterbacks (Kenny Pickett, Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel, Shedeur Sanders) competing for the starting job. The team's next franchise QB may come via the No. 1 overall pick of the 2026 draft. Speaking of teams with quarterback concerns, the Saints will likely turn to rookie Tyler Shough as their replacement for retired Derek Carr. New coach Kellen Moore will have his work cut out for him this season. It's hard to imagine a Pete Carroll team finishing this low in the standings, but even with the upgrade to Geno Smith at quarterback and the presence of Maxx Crosby on defense, this has the looks of a roster that still has too many weak points. The Titans' defense isn't very enticing and the offense will be a work in progress as rookie QB Cam Ward gets acclimated to the pros. The Jets fumbled away a stacked roster last season and, though the defense should be solid, the Justin Fields-led offense figures to be limited.